Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — before 2027
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Doug Collins Favorite | 26.0%Kalshi | $18.5K | — | No liquidity21.0% | — | — | — | — | |
Steve Witkoff | 23.0%Kalshi | $32.8K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Pete Hegseth | 21.0%Kalshi | $1.2M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Susie Wiles | 21.0%Kalshi | $221.7K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Howard Lutnick | 20.0%Kalshi | $413.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Bill Pulte | 20.0%Kalshi | $57.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Kash Patel | 18.0%Kalshi | $1.3M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Kelly Loeffler | 18.0%Kalshi | $6.8K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Brooke Rollins | 17.0%Kalshi | $12.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Stephen Miller | 16.0%Kalshi | $123.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Tom Homan | 16.0%Kalshi | $39.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Peter Navarro | 16.0%Kalshi | $9.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Linda McMahon | 15.0%Kalshi | $23.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Steven Cheung | 14.0%Kalshi | $7.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mike Huckabee | 14.0%Kalshi | $29.5K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Brendan Carr | 15.0%Gemini | $6.8K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Chris Wright | 14.0%Kalshi | $50.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Rodney Scott | 14.0%Gemini | $3.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Doug Burgum | 12.0%Gemini | $14.2K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Scott Turner Widest spread 2.0% | 13.0%Gemini | $10.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
John Ratcliffe | 13.0%Gemini | $19.2K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Russell Vought | 12.0%Kalshi | $10.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Sean Duffy | 12.0%Gemini | $22.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Mehmet Oz | 11.0%Kalshi | $21.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 10.0%Kalshi | $278.7K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Jamieson Greer | 9.9%Kalshi | $4.5K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Scott Bessent | 9.9%Kalshi | $96.6K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Lee Zeldin | 9.2%Kalshi | $44.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Marco Rubio | 8.6%Kalshi | $168.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Amy Gleason | 7.8%Kalshi | $88.6K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This Kalshi-led market, also listed on Gemini, asks which named officials will permanently leave their role in the Trump administration during calendar year 2026 (before January 1, 2027). Each named individual trades as a separate contract, resolving Yes if they resign, are removed, retire, or otherwise cease to hold the position, per the exchange's rules. Total volume across platforms sits near $5.8 million. At the top of the board, three departures are priced as near-certainties on Kalshi: Karoline Leavitt at 99.8%, Tulsi Gabbard at 99.5%, and Todd Blanche at 97.8%, with Blanche also at 92.0% on Gemini. Below that cluster, the market becomes genuinely uncertain: Amy Gleason sits around 44.0%, Susie Wiles near 33.5%, and Steve Witkoff, Howard Lutnick, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. between roughly 29.5% and 32.5%. Cabinet-level figures such as Marco Rubio (12.0%), Scott Bessent (13.0%), and Scott Turner (9.2%) are priced as unlikely to depart. The most striking cross-platform gap is on Karoline Leavitt, quoted at 99.8% on Kalshi but just 24.0% on Gemini — a 38.35-point spread that likely reflects thin Gemini liquidity rather than genuine disagreement. Otherwise, Kalshi and Gemini track each other closely across the slate.
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