Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — During Trump's term
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pete Hegseth Favorite | 26.0%Polymarket | $585 | — | — | — | — | ||
Marco Rubio | 8.0%Polymarket | $509 | — | — | — | — | ||
Russell Vought | 23.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity6.5% | — | — | — | |
Jay Clayton | 14.0%Kalshi | $291 | — | — | — | — | ||
Markwayne Mullin | 12.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity5.8% | — | — | — | |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 12.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity7.3% | — | — | — | |
Stephen Miller | 13.0%Kalshi | $282 | — | — | — | — | ||
Doug Burgum | 11.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity6.0% | — | — | — | |
None before 2029 | 10.0%Polymarket | $13 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Lee Zeldin | 10.0%Polymarket | $13 | — | No liquidity6.2% | — | — | — | |
Howard Lutnick | 9.0%Polymarket | $47 | — | No liquidity7.6% | — | — | — | |
Sean Duffy | 9.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity6.4% | — | — | — | |
John Ratcliffe | 9.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity6.2% | — | — | — | |
Jamieson Greer | 9.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity6.0% | — | — | — | |
Keith Sonderling | 9.0%Polymarket | $35 | — | No liquidity5.9% | — | — | — | |
J.D. Vance | 9.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Scott Bessent | 9.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity6.0% | — | — | — | |
Kelly Loeffler | 9.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity5.9% | — | — | — | |
Scott Turner | 9.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity6.2% | — | — | — | |
Chris Wright | 9.0%Polymarket | $35 | — | No liquidity6.2% | — | — | — | |
Doug Collins | 9.0%Polymarket | $34 | — | No liquidity6.5% | — | — | — | |
Todd Blanche | 9.0%Polymarket | $111 | — | No liquidity7.8% | — | — | — | |
Linda McMahon | 9.1%Kalshi | $133 | — | — | — | — | ||
Brooke Rollins | 8.8%Kalshi | $123 | — | — | — | — | ||
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A person’s announcement of their intent to leave and their departure count as one occurrence, at the earlier of the two. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. Susie Wiles' departure as Chief of Staff, announced on Nov 6, 2026, occurred before Issuance and does not count. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well as the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
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