Who will release a new song this year? — 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lil Nas X Favorite | 99.0%Kalshi | $3.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tate McRae | 98.0%Kalshi | $822 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Justin Timberlake | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
The Marías | 98.0%Kalshi | $316 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fall Out Boy | 98.0%Kalshi | $2.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dua Lipa | 98.0%Kalshi | $175 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Post Malone | 97.0%Kalshi | $286 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Clairo | 94.0%Kalshi | $426 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
PARTYNEXTDOOR | 93.0%Kalshi | $236 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bad Bunny | 96.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Eminem | 90.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nicki Minaj | 82.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Rihanna | 58.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Billie Eilish | 75.0%Kalshi | $2.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Justin Bieber | 84.0%Kalshi | $2.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Olivia Dean | 70.0%Kalshi | $978 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kendrick Lamar | 77.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
NF | 73.0%Kalshi | $2.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Addison Rae | 68.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Linkin Park | 63.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Frank Ocean | 48.0%Kalshi | $4.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Daft Punk | 17.0%Kalshi | $679 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The market resolves based on public availability on Spotify under the artist's official discography. For markets specifying "new song" or "new music," the release must be an original composition first released during the time period. Re-recordings (unless in a new language), remasters, radio edits, clean/explicit versions of existing tracks, remixes, live versions, acoustic versions, instrumentals, demos, alternative takes, or reproductions of songs already on Spotify do not qualify as "new." Songs released in a new language count as new releases. Cosmetic changes like title edits, artwork updates, or re-uploads of the same audio do not constitute new releases. If a release is withdrawn after appearing on Spotify, it still qualifies if verifiably public at any point during the time period. The effective release time is the first verified moment of public availability, regardless of displayed metadata dates. Region-limited or staggered releases qualify once publicly available in any official Spotify market. If the artist is deceased, posthumous releases attributed to them as primary or featured performer still qualify.
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