Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

This market asks which player will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or. Each outcome is a named player, and trading closes on 31 December 2026. The event is listed on Kalshi and Gemini, but almost all activity is on Kalshi, which accounts for roughly $12.4 million in volume and about $7.5 million in liquidity. Gemini shows about $243,600 in volume and no reported liquidity. The race is effectively a two-player contest. Lamine Yamal leads with a consensus of 47.5%, and the cheapest entry on Kalshi is 48.0%. Harry Kane is close behind at 44.5%. That three-point gap points to a genuinely contested outcome rather than a clear favourite. Lionel Messi (4.5%) and Kylian Mbappe (3.5%) are next. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia sits at 2.0%, and Rodri, Luis Diaz and Lautaro Martinez are each at 1.5%. Most other candidates, including Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior, are priced near 1.0%. A meaningful cross-platform comparison isn't possible. For the leading outcomes, Gemini's books were excluded from consensus because they were illiquid, one-sided, wide or closed. Only Luis Diaz and Lautaro Martinez carry Gemini midpoints, at 1.5% each. Where spreads can be calculated, they read 0.00 points. The overall takeaway is that this market's pricing is essentially Kalshi's alone, with Yamal and Kane nearly level and no material cross-platform divergence to observe.