Live
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Starts:Nov 9, 2025, 3:00 PMEnds:Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM
AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Total volume
$389.3K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
2
Platforms
1
Markets
1
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes Favorite | 51.9%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
No | 49.7%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
YesFavorite
51.9%Best · Kalshi
No
49.7%Best · Kalshi
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027
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