Will a sitting member of Trump's Cabinet receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes Favorite | 80.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | |
No | 23.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If a sitting member of Trump's Cabinet has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve after Issuance and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. For purposes of this Contract, a member of Trump's Cabinet refers to the Vice President and any official listed as a member of the Cabinet on the White House's Cabinet page at the time of the pardon. A pardon counts even if the recipient has not been charged with a crime, even if the recipient rejects it, and even if it covers the recipient by role, agency, or policy area without naming them. The following do NOT count: grants made before Issuance, including Proclamation 10989 of Nov 7, 2025; grants that cover the recipient only by describing conduct, without naming them or their role, agency, or policy area; pardons granted after the recipient has left the Cabinet; officials serving in an acting capacity, even if listed on the White House's Cabinet page; state pardons.
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