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Will California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 be above 419.85?
Starts:Aug 19, 2026, 3:00 AMEnds:Feb 23, 2027, 1:59 PM
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Total volume
$20.6K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
2
Platforms
1
Markets
1
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No Favorite | 62.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Yes | 39.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
NoFavorite
62.0%Best · Kalshi
Yes
39.0%Best · Kalshi
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 419.85, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike.
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