Will China abolish hukou? — People's Republic of China
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before 2030 Favorite | 17.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before 2029 | 16.0%Kalshi | $3.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before 2028 | 11.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before 2027 | 10.0%Kalshi | $623 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
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