Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot at the opening of the 120th Congress?
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| Outcome | Best | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes Favorite | 92.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | |
No | 9.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If Hakeem Jeffries is elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives on the first ballot of the Speaker election at the opening of the 120th Congress before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is 1 if Hakeem Jeffries is declared elected Speaker on it, which requires a majority of the votes cast for a person by name, and 0 otherwise, including if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: A later ballot on which Hakeem Jeffries is elected A first ballot on which no candidate receives a majority, even if Hakeem Jeffries receives the most votes The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.
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