Will Haley Stevens leave the House Democratic Caucus before Jan 3, 2027?
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Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No Favorite | 75.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | |
Yes | 26.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If Haley Stevens leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the House Democratic Caucus before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Haley Stevens changes their official party registration from the Democratic Party to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, announces they are no longer a member of the House Democratic Caucus, or is expelled from the House Democratic Caucus by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes. Announcing a switch to another party or to independent status, or joining the House Republican Conference, counts as leaving the House Democratic Caucus. The following do NOT count: Being stripped of committee assignments while remaining in the House Democratic Caucus. Temporary suspension from caucus activities or committees while remaining a member. Loss of party endorsement or support while remaining a member. Statements about considering leaving without actual departure. Resignation from Congress or expulsion from Congress.
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