Will HHS's transgender Medicaid rule take effect Oct. 13?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes Favorite | 87.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
No | 22.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If the taking effect of CMS-2451-F in at least one U.S. jurisdiction on October 13, 2026 is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Oct 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states the taking effect of CMS-2451-F in at least one U.S. jurisdiction on October 13, 2026 occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. For this market, taking effect means CMS-2451-F operates in at least one U.S. jurisdiction on Oct. 13. Announcement, publication, or scheduling alone does not qualify. Nationwide relief preventing operation anywhere in the United States that day means No; limited relief does not if the rule operates elsewhere. The existing hormone-therapy taper and continued mental-health funding do not negate legal effect.
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