Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

The market asks whether Iran will hold a presidential election by a specified date. Pezeshkian just won a snap election in July 2024 following Raisi's death, so a fresh presidential election in 2026 would be unusual. Recent 2026 turmoil — assassination of Khamenei, war — creates some tail probability. Now I have enough to write the description. This market on Polymarket and Kalshi asks whether Iran will officially hold a presidential election before a specified cutoff date, with the market resolving Yes only after voting has taken place — announcements alone do not count. Iran isn't due for a regularly scheduled presidential vote until 2028, since Masoud Pezeshkian was declared the ninth president of Iran after winning the July 5, 2024 runoff against Saeed Jalili, in snap elections triggered by the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. Any Yes resolution therefore effectively requires an early or emergency vote. Traders are pricing that possibility as remote. On Kalshi, the "before Jan 1, 2027" outcome sits at 12.0%, while the tighter "before Jul 1, 2026" line is priced at just 0.4% — consistent with the fact that mid-2026 has already passed with no vote called. Polymarket's parallel "December 31" contract trades at 6.0%, and its "June 30" line has collapsed to 0.0%. Across platforms there is essentially no spread on overlapping questions. The residual double-digit probability on the year-end contract reflects genuine instability rather than any scheduled vote. An election for the third supreme leader of Iran was held from 3 to 8 March 2026 following the assassination of Ali Khamenei on 28 February during the 2026 Iran war, with Mojtaba Khamenei announced as the new supreme leader on 9 March, and Pezeshkian has emerged as an unlikely survivor of one of the most turbulent periods in the Islamic Republic's history, even as conservative forces attempt to consolidate power following Khamenei's killing. Across all four listed contracts, the cross-platform read is unambiguous: markets treat a fresh Iranian presidential vote this year as a low-probability t