Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum before 2030?

If the Republic of Ireland agrees to or announces a formal government decision to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments The referendum must be a national poll in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification. An unequivocal Government of Ireland decision to hold the poll, an official statement recording that decision, a constitutional referendum Bill passed by both Houses of the Oireachtas, or a ministerial polling-day order qualifies. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, consultations, citizens' assemblies, preparatory legislation or research, and general statements of intent do not qualify. A Northern Ireland border-poll announcement alone does not qualify.