Will Mike Johnson announce he is leaving the House? — Before Jan 2028

This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. Giving up the Speakership or House Republican leadership alone does not count. A departure that takes effect at the end of a term, on Jan 3, 2027 or Jan 3, 2029, does not count, including a statement that Mike Johnson will not seek reelection in 2028 or will run for another office when his term ends. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure; a departure at the natural end of a term counts only as stated above.