Will Netanyahu and Eisenkot form a unity government? — Israeli government formation
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before Jul 1, 2027 No liquidity | — | $87 | — | No liquidity27.0% | — | — | — | — |
Before Feb 1, 2027 No liquidity | — | $66 | — | No liquidity18.0% | — | — | — | — |
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The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted. For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval, in a vote of confidence, of a new government that includes both Likud and Yashar qualifies. A party is considered to be part of a government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in that government. Outside support for a government, including a confidence and supply arrangement, does NOT make a party part of that government. A Knesset vote approving the appointment of additional ministers to an existing or outgoing government does NOT qualify.
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