Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
December 31, 2027 | 17.0%Polymarket | $3.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
December 31, 2026 | 7.0%Polymarket | $599.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Polymarket. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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