Will Russia name the pathogen behind the Irkutsk plague lab death before Nov 1, 2026?
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| Outcome | Best | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No Favorite | 78.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Yes | 23.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If Rospotrebnadzor announces the identification of a specific pathogen as the cause of the fatal pneumonia of an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only an announcement by Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, including its Irkutsk Oblast office, counts. It must name a specific organism, such as Yersinia pestis or another bacterium, virus or fungus identified by genus or species, as the cause of the employee's pneumonia or death. A generic description such as "bacterial," "viral" or "undetermined etiology" does NOT count Naming a pathogen as suspected, under investigation or not ruled out does NOT count Ruling out a pathogen without naming the cause does NOT count
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