Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

This market asks whether any wallet identified as belonging to Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, will show outflow or swap activity during 2026. Resolution relies on Arkham's Intel Explorer entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto: a Yes requires an on-chain movement from those wallets before the window closes, while No means the coins stay dormant, as they have for most of Bitcoin's history. Polymarket runs the market from January 9 through December 31, 2026, while Kalshi frames its version as resolving by January 1, 2027. The market strongly favours continued dormancy. No sits at a consensus 95.3%, with Kalshi pricing it at 96.0% and Polymarket at 95.4%. Yes trades at a consensus 4.8%, quoted at 4.0% on Kalshi and 5.0% on Polymarket. Polymarket carries the vast majority of activity, with roughly $4.76 million in volume versus about $182,000 on Kalshi. The cross-platform spread is modest at 2.25 points, with Kalshi slightly more confident in dormancy than Polymarket. Overall, both venues agree that a Satoshi-linked movement in 2026 is a low-probability tail event, with only minor pricing disagreement between them.