Will the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act become law? — Before 2027

If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An example of such a bill is here. Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million). Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm. Clarification: A bill satisfies the Payout Criterion if it establishes a baseline prohibition or tax on institutional investors buying single-family homes, regardless of specific statutory carve-outs, asset exemptions, or firm-size thresholds. For example, the May 14 House-amended version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act qualifies because it explicitly bans these purchases, and the inclusion of various transaction exceptions (such as build-to-rent programs) does not disqualify it.