Will the House pass a bill to codify Roe v. Wade?
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| Outcome | Best | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes Favorite | 66.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | |
No | 36.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If a bill codifying Roe v. Wade has passed the House after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying bill is legislation that establishes a federal statutory right to abortion that applies in every state, at least as broad as Roe v. Wade: abortion must be protected before fetal viability, and after viability where needed to protect the patient's life or health. The Women's Health Protection Act or a successor bill with the same effect qualifies. Legislation limited to a narrower subject, such as interstate travel, contraception, medication abortion, funding or the privacy of reproductive health data, does NOT qualify, and neither does a bill that protects abortion only for a shorter period than before viability. The measure must pass the full House by any means, including voice vote, unanimous consent, suspension of the rules, a special rule or a discharge petition. It may be any vehicle, including a larger package whose text as passed contains a qualifying right. Committee approval, a rule providing for consideration, or a discharge petition reaching 218 signatures without passage does NOT count. Senate passage and enactment do NOT count.
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