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Will the House pass a bill to codify Roe v. Wade?

Starts:Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 AMEnds:Jan 1, 2028, 5:00 AM
GMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Politics favorite hit rate95.3% (3,537)
Total volume
$1.5K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
2
Platforms
1
Markets
1

Markets

Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.

YesFavorite
66.0%Best · Kalshi
No
36.0%Best · Kalshi

Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.

If a bill codifying Roe v. Wade has passed the House after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying bill is legislation that establishes a federal statutory right to abortion that applies in every state, at least as broad as Roe v. Wade: abortion must be protected before fetal viability, and after viability where needed to protect the patient's life or health. The Women's Health Protection Act or a successor bill with the same effect qualifies. Legislation limited to a narrower subject, such as interstate travel, contraception, medication abortion, funding or the privacy of reproductive health data, does NOT qualify, and neither does a bill that protects abortion only for a shorter period than before viability. The measure must pass the full House by any means, including voice vote, unanimous consent, suspension of the rules, a special rule or a discharge petition. It may be any vehicle, including a larger package whose text as passed contains a qualifying right. Committee approval, a rule providing for consideration, or a discharge petition reaching 218 signatures without passage does NOT count. Senate passage and enactment do NOT count.

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Category

Politics