Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator trigger in 2026?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No Favorite | 95.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Yes | 10.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME. Revisions to previously published values will not be considered. The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession. A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.
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