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Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer?

Starts:Sep 24, 2026, 11:00 PMEnds:Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM
AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Politics favorite hit rate95.3% (1,754)
Total volume
$5.0K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
4
Platforms
1
Markets
1

Markets

Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.

Before Jan 1, 2028Favorite
49.0%Best · Kalshi$805
Before Aug 1, 2027
40.0%Best · Kalshi$1.3K
Before Apr 1, 2027
28.0%Best · Kalshi$1.1K
Before Dec 1, 2026
15.0%Best · Kalshi$1.9K

Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.

A decision qualifies if the UK government announces that it will not transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius, including by abandoning the May 22, 2025 UK-Mauritius treaty or agreeing to a replacement arrangement under which the UK retains sovereignty over Diego Garcia. Abandoning, withdrawing from, or superseding that treaty qualifies only if the UK does not, at the same time, agree to, announce, or state its intention to pursue another arrangement under which Mauritius would become sovereign over Diego Garcia. Changes to payments, the duration or terms of the UK's use of Diego Garcia, security provisions, implementation dates, or other treaty provisions do not qualify if Mauritius would still become sovereign over Diego Garcia. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments

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Politics

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