Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

This market asks whether a senior U.S. official — the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any federal agency — will definitively confirm that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026. A "Yes" resolution requires an unambiguous, on-the-record government statement; UAP sightings, document releases, or congressional testimony alone do not qualify. The market is heavily skewed toward "No," which commands a consensus probability of 96.7% on Polymarket. The "Yes" outcome sits at just 3.4% on Polymarket, with Limitless showing a slightly higher 3.8%. This is a steep collapse from earlier in the year: Polymarket bets on U.S. alien confirmation before 2027 had surged to 16% with $17 million in volume following high-profile government activity. The Executive Office of the President registered the domain aliens.gov on March 18, 2026, following President Trump's directive to release files on aliens, UAPs, and UFOs. Despite the intrigue, the Pentagon has published five batches of UAP files through August 7, 2026, but none constitutes a qualifying official confirmation. As of June 14, 2026, AARO continues to assert that it has not uncovered verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial technology or life. By September 2026, no definitive statement confirming extraterrestrial life had been made by the President, Cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or federal agencies, leading market prices to settle at historic lows. With only three months remaining until the December 31 deadline and all prior milestones passed without confirmation, both Polymarket and Limitless are in near-total agreement: markets across both platforms firmly price a "No" outcome as near-certain.