Will the U.S. goods trade deficit with China before January 1, 2027 be below $150B?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes Favorite | 98.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
No | 75.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table. For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion. The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion. Data are nominal and not seasonally adjusted. Revisions published after the first annual 2026 value is released will not be considered.
Discussion (0)
Log in to join the discussion.
No comments yet — start the discussion.