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Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Starts:Jun 5, 2025, 4:45 PMEnds:Jan 1, 2050, 4:59 AM
AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Total volume
$20.9K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
2
Platforms
1
Markets
1
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes Favorite | 68.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
No | 35.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
YesFavorite
68.0%Best · Kalshi
No
35.0%Best · Kalshi
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes. At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.
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