Will there be a recession in 2026?

This market asks whether the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2026. Across the three platforms listing it, resolution hinges on either two consecutive quarters of negative U.S. real GDP growth (per the Bureau of Economic Analysis) within a defined window, or, on Polymarket and Limitless, an NBER announcement that a recession occurred during 2025 or 2026. Kalshi's version restricts the qualifying window to negative GDP prints in 2025 or 2026. A "Yes" means a recession is recorded; "No" means neither trigger fires by the relevant Q4 2026 advance estimate release. The three venues agree closely on the odds. "No" is the clear favourite at a 92.5% consensus, with Polymarket at 93.0%, Limitless at 92.6%, and Kalshi at 92.0%. "Yes" sits at 7.5% consensus, ranging from 7.4% on Limitless to 8.0% on Kalshi. That leaves roughly a nine-to-one implied lean against a 2026 recession call. Cross-platform spread is minimal, just 0.05 points on either outcome, so there is no meaningful pricing disagreement. Kalshi is marginally the most cautious, pricing recession slightly higher than Polymarket and Limitless. Overall, the three markets are tightly aligned in treating a 2026 U.S. recession as unlikely.