Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
December 31, 2027 Favorite | 62.0%Polymarket | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
June 30, 2027 | 53.0%Polymarket | $129 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Yes Widest spread 2.5% | 2.5%Polymarket | $1.0M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks whether Donald Trump will be impeached by the US House of Representatives between July 24, 2025 and the end of 2026. A "Yes" resolution requires the House to approve at least one article of impeachment by simple majority; Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office are not required. If no such vote occurs by December 31, 2026, the market resolves "No." Across platforms, "No" is the heavy favourite. Polymarket prices "No" at 97.7% and "Yes" at just 2.2%, while Polymarket US shows "No" at 94.0% and "Yes" at 7.0%. The consensus implied probabilities are 97.7% for "No" and 6.5% for "Yes," with Polymarket carrying essentially all the liquidity — about $1.0 million in volume and $117,698 in liquidity, versus no recorded activity on the Polymarket US listing. The cross-platform spread on each outcome is roughly 4.15 points, with Polymarket US pricing impeachment materially higher than Polymarket. That gap is notable in relative terms — "Yes" on Polymarket US is more than three times the price on Polymarket — but stems from the thinly traded US listing rather than a genuine disagreement among active markets. Overall, active trading points overwhelmingly toward no House impeachment vote before the end of 2026.
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