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Will Trump recognize Taiwan? — During Trump's term

Starts:Dec 18, 2024, 3:00 PMEnds:Jan 20, 2029, 3:00 PM
AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Politics favorite hit rate95.3% (1,754)
Total volume
$38.7K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
2
Platforms
1
Markets
1

Markets

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Before Jan 20, 2029Favorite
15.0%Best · Kalshi$29.7K
Before 2027
2.0%Best · Kalshi$9.1K

Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.

This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state. Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.

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Category

Politics