Will Venezuela exit OPEC?
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before Jan 1, 2028 No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity43.0% | — | — | — | — |
Before Jul 1, 2027 No liquidity | — | $2 | — | — | No liquidity28.0% | — | — | — | — |
Before Jan 1, 2027 No liquidity | — | — | — | — | No liquidity15.0% | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition statement, or an OPEC+ policy change without an OPEC withdrawal does NOT qualify. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties, accords, or binding agreements Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions or expressions of interest without commitment Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents not confirmed by government sources Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions Retraction of previously announced commitments
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