Will women get a bigger share of NCAA settlement back pay before Jan 1, 2030?

If a court order entered in House v. NCAA (In re College Athlete NIL Litigation) before Jan 1, 2030 allocates a greater share of the damages settlement funds in respect of participation on women's teams than the plan of allocation approved on June 6, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Only an order in this case that increases the share allocated to women's teams relative to all other teams counts, including an order approving a new plan of allocation or an amended settlement that adds funds for women's teams. An order granting only preliminary approval or approving only notice, a Ninth Circuit or Supreme Court ruling that only affirms, reverses, vacates or remands, a Title IX ruling in any other case, and a change confined to men's sports or confined to women's sports do not count. A larger share that results only from redistributing unclaimed funds or correcting claims under the same allocation method does not count. The order need not be final or beyond appeal; a later stay, reversal or modification does not change the outcome.