Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Favorite | 83.5%Polymarket | $789.6K | — | — | — | — | ||
David Crowley | 82.0%Gemini | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Tom Tiffany | 18.0%Polymarket US | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Republican Widest spread 2.5% | 15.5%Polymarket | $1.0M | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race is being tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, Gemini, and Polymarket US, with resolution tied to the winner of the general election. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the main market is framed as a party question — which party's nominee wins — while Gemini and Polymarket US list individual candidates as separate outcomes. The Democratic party line is the clear favourite, with a consensus implied probability of 80.5%: Polymarket has it at 80.5% and Kalshi at 79.0%, a modest two-point cross-platform spread. The Republican side sits at a consensus 20.5%, priced at 19.5% on Polymarket and 21.0% on Kalshi. At the candidate level, Gemini shows David Crowley at 80.0% on the Democratic side and Tom Tiffany at 22.0% on the Republican side, while Polymarket US lists David Crowley (D) at 79.0%. Polymarket US also carries a separate Yes/No pair priced at 51.0% Yes and 93.0% No, which sum to more than 100% and appear to reflect distinct sub-markets rather than a single binary. Across venues, the consistent takeaway is a heavy Democratic lean around 79–81%, with tight pricing and no material cross-platform dislocation on the main party outcomes.
Discussion (0)
Log in to join the discussion.
No comments yet — start the discussion.