Zakharova vs Shubladze

This market covered the WTA 125K Istanbul 2 Round of 16 tennis match between Anastasia Zakharova and Alexandra Shubladze, scheduled for July 16, 2026. A "Zakharova" outcome resolves if she advances; a "Shubladze" outcome resolves if her opponent does. The event is now closed, with Kalshi drawing the bulk of activity at roughly $2.2M in volume against much thinner books on Polymarket ($6K) and effectively empty markets on Azuro. Zakharova was the clear favourite to win the match, but the platforms disagreed sharply on just how clear. Kalshi priced her at 99.0%, essentially treating the result as settled, while Polymarket had her at just 54.5% and Azuro at 58.8% — a cross-platform spread of 44.5 points on the same head-to-head question. The mirror image shows on Shubladze, priced at 45.5% on Polymarket and 47.6% on Azuro but only 2.0% on Kalshi, a 43.5-point gap. Alongside the moneyline, Polymarket and Azuro listed a range of totals and handicap lines, with most games-over/under markets clustering near coin-flip levels. The takeaway is that all four venues agreed on the favourite, but Kalshi's near-certain pricing sat far apart from the much more competitive lines quoted on Polymarket and Azuro.