Bass slips, Malkovich leads, and the Fed pivots to hikes
A mayoral lead flip in Los Angeles, a Venice win for John Malkovich, and the Fed's first rate hike since 2023 drove the week's sharpest prediction market moves.
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Two markets moved more than 20 points in seven days. The common thread is late-breaking real-world events compressing uncertainty fast: an incumbent mayor losing her lead, and the Fed's first rate hike since 2023.
Raman overtakes Bass in Los Angeles mayor market
Council member Nithya Raman has moved to 57.7% to become Los Angeles mayor, flipping a race where incumbent Karen Bass sat at 64.6% a week ago — a 23.1-point swing for Bass in seven days. Bass, who drew backlash for being abroad when the 2025 wildfires broke out, advanced alongside Raman from the June primary; the two now face a November runoff. Volume surged 791% on the week, with 40 large trades totalling $162,366, making this the most actively traded political market in the window by trade count.
| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 64.6% | 41.5% | -23.1 pts |
24h volume $320,257 · 1 platform · 40 large trades totalling $162,366 (7d).
Compare live odds for Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Malkovich takes Best Actor lead after Venice win
John Malkovich rose 13.5 points to 39.5% for the 2027 Best Actor Oscar after winning the prize at the Venice Film Festival for his role in Martin McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine. The Venice win, combined with strong early awards-season buzz, pushed volume up 143% on the week; McDonagh's track record — The Banshees of Inisherin, Three Billboards — has historically translated Venice momentum into Oscar nominations. Matt Damon slips to 25.5% in second place.
| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Malkovich | 26.0% | 39.5% | +13.5 pts |
24h volume $41,388 · 2 platforms.
Compare live odds for Oscar Winner: Best Actor — In 2027
October Fed hike now the market consensus at 68%
The probability of a 25bps hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting rose 27.6 points to 68.0% after the Fed raised rates 25bps on September 16 — its first hike since 2023 — and its dot plot showed 16 of 18 members projecting at least one further hike this year. Futures markets are now pricing the fed funds rate at roughly 4.2% by December, consistent with one more move after September's increase to 3.75%-4.00%. Kalshi is the sole venue listing this contract, with $2.6 million in volume and only 4 large trades, suggesting the move was driven by broad-based repricing rather than a handful of large positions.
| Outcome | 7 days ago | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 40.4% | 68.0% | +27.6 pts |
24h volume $438,336 · 1 platform · 4 large trades totalling $8,678 (7d).
Compare live odds for Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026
The takeaway
Festival season and late-breaking political shifts dominated the week: real-world events with hard deadlines — an election, an FOMC meeting — compressed probability fast and pulled in volume that was largely absent a week earlier.
Corrected on 7 October 2026: we removed sections that misreported game results or price moves, and fixed other errors of fact.
Markets covered
- Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionWhen written 41.5% → Now 57.9%
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor — In 2027When written 39.5% → Now 41.1% (+1.6)
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026When written 68.0% → Now 83.5%