Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? — Before Jan 1, 2027
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dot Plot Omitted | 20.0%Kalshi | $17.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Reserve President Rejected | 13.0%Kalshi | $7.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Trimmed Mean Emphasized | 12.0%Kalshi | $3.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Presser Skipped | 10.0%Kalshi | $14.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Clarification 9/28/26: “Dot Plot Omitted” refers to a published Summary of Economic Projections omitting individual participants’ federal funds rate projections as a whole. The absence of a projection from one or more participants does not qualify if other participants’ individual projections are published. Those projections count regardless of their presentation format or whether the term “dot plot” is used.
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