Federal

64 events

	Category				Providers
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027	Politics	$1.8M	11.5%	Aug 19	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?	Markets	$1.4M	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the federal gas tax be suspended? — legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline	Politics	$345.7K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$223.4K	—	Sep 8	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029?	Politics	$134.2K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	PoliticsWorld	$90.8K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$79.1K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?	—	$76.2K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$66.5K	—	Sep 11	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Next German federal election winner? — in 2029	Politics	$64.8K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will any federal or state court rule finds that fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states?	Politics	$63.4K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin before 2027?	PoliticsCrypto	$59.3K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Any Court rule that the 2024 USA Federal Election was Fraudulent?	Politics	$49.3K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?	PoliticsMarkets	$47.8K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? — Before Jan 1, 2027	Markets	$43.4K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Harvard federal sponsored revenue in FY2026? — Year ended June 30, 2026	Politics	$41.2K	—	Aug 25	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026?	Politics	$36.9K	—	Oct 4	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Federal District Governor Election Winner	Politics	$36.1K	—	Aug 17	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh? — Chair of the Federal Reserve	Politics	$33.2K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law? — Through Nov 2027	Politics	$26.3K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Trump try to fire Lisa Cook again? — Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System	Politics	$23.7K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will any federal or state court rule issues a preliminary or permanent injunction prohibiting Trump Media & Technology Group from providing paying customers faster access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts than is available to the general public?	PoliticsTech & Science	$18.1K	—	Aug 13	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the DOJ claim in federal court that any of President Biden's pardons are void?	Politics	$17.6K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will any federal appellate court (including the U.S. Supreme Court) rule reverses or vacates the district court's November 24, 2025 order dismissing the indictment of James Comey, such that the criminal prosecution may proceed?	Politics	$14.5K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Trump pull CBP from a sanctuary city airport? — the federal government withdraws CBP officers from a U.S. international airport in response to sanctuary-jurisdiction noncooperation	Politics	$14.2K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will anyone face federal charges tied to Fulton County’s 2020 election? — Criminal charges	Politics	$13.7K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$13.6K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Trump order mandatory pre-release federal review of AI models? — Executive action timing	Politics	$13.1K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?	Politics	$13.0K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?	Politics	$12.8K	—	Sep 4	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will legislation that establishes a multi-issue federal framework for artificial intelligence, combining federal technical standards or testing capacity with transparency, disclosure, or risk-management provisions, regardless of whether those provisions mandate private-sector compliance or promote voluntary guidelines for federal adoption become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$9.6K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the House impeach a federal judge before 2027?	Politics	$8.1K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announce a decision to schedule fewer than eight regular FOMC monetary-policy meetings in a calendar year as a change to the Committee’s meeting cadence before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$8.0K	—	Aug 2	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Yale University and the U.S. Department of Justice have entered into a final settlement or other final written agreement resolving, suspending, or settling a federal admissions-discrimination investigation that includes or applies to Yale Law School before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$7.5K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$6.2K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will any federal court rule issues a preliminary or permanent injunction, vacatur, or stay halting all or part of the FCC's early ABC license renewal proceedings?	Politics	$6.0K	—	Aug 21	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Trump aprpove a new city on federal land?	Politics	$5.7K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the Federal Trade Commission announce opening an investigation into the acquisition, scanning and destruction of books by artificial intelligence companies for use in training AI models before Jan 1, 2027?	PoliticsTech & Science	$5.3K	—	Aug 25	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a binding U.S. federal measure takes effect that generally prohibits or requires federal authorization for private U.S. persons or companies to access, host, or deploy Kimi K3 or a successor Kimi model before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$4.7K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will federal courts unblocked the policy suspending immigrant visa processing for 75 countries before Nov 24, 2026?	Politics	$4.1K	—	Aug 27	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027?	PoliticsTech & Science	$4.0K	—	Oct 9	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$3.0K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the Federal Trade Commission sue YouTube over account suspensions, account terminations, demonetization, or related content-enforcement practices before 2027?	Politics	$2.7K	—	Sep 5	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? — Federal AI catastrophic-risk duty of care	PoliticsTech & Science	$2.4K	—	Sep 18	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the US agree to or announce a substantive federal action arising from its Smithsonian pressure campaign before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$2.1K	—	Sep 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will Brendan Carr leave chair of the Federal Communications Commission before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$2.1K	—	Jul 6	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor? — a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors nomination	Politics	$2.0K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) announce a decision to pursue the division of PJM Interconnection into two or more independently governed regional grid operators before Jan 1, 2027?	Politics	$2.0K	—	Aug 20	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?	Politics	$1.9K	—	Jul 23	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election? — Before Aug 26, 2029	Politics	$1.7K	—	Sep 1	AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU

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