Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cassidy Hutchinson Favorite | 44.0%Kalshi | $6.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
John Brennan Widest spread 11.5% | 30.0%Kalshi | $69.5K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Anthony Fauci | 21.0%Kalshi | $487.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Leon Black | 17.0%Kalshi | $168 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ilhan Omar | 17.0%Gemini | $155.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Lisa Cook | 13.0%Kalshi | $26.8K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Dan J. Sullivan | 13.0%Kalshi | $5.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
James Clapper | 13.0%Kalshi | $19.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Alvin Bragg | 8.4%Kalshi | $21.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Gustavo Petro | 13.0%Kalshi | $12.0K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Letitia James | 14.0%Gemini | $66.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Peter Strzok | 13.0%Kalshi | $11.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Jack Smith | 11.0%Kalshi | $74.0K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Chris Krebs | 11.0%Kalshi | $7.2K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Fani Willis | 11.0%Kalshi | $10.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Lisa Monaco | 12.0%Kalshi | $1.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Gavin Newsom | 10.0%Kalshi | $15.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jennifer Siebel Newsom | 10.0%Kalshi | $7.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Miles Taylor | 11.0%Kalshi | $2.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Keith Ellison | 3.6%Kalshi | $19.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Elissa Slotkin | 8.7%Kalshi | $8.8K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Reid Hoffman | 9.0%Kalshi | $4.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tim Walz | 8.0%Gemini | $265.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Hunter Biden | 7.0%Gemini | $14.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Liz Cheney | 6.7%Kalshi | $11.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Mark Kelly | 6.9%Kalshi | $18.9K | — | No liquidity9.0% | — | — | — | — | |
Christopher Wray | 6.7%Kalshi | $7.5K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
E. Jean Carroll | 7.0%Kalshi | $15.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Andrew Weissmann | 6.0%Kalshi | $3.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
George Soros | 6.0%Kalshi | $6.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tucker Carlson | 6.8%Kalshi | $8.0K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Hillary Clinton | 5.9%Kalshi | $42.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Bill Clinton | 5.1%Kalshi | $54.7K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Mark Milley | 4.9%Kalshi | $8.2K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Barack Obama | 5.5%Kalshi | $104.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Joe Kent | 5.0%Kalshi | $6.1K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Adam Schiff | 4.0%Kalshi | $32.2K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Pam Bondi | 3.8%Kalshi | $22.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Jacob Frey | 4.8%Kalshi | $11.9K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Joe Biden | 3.0%Gemini | $23.2K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Jerome Powell | 3.8%Kalshi | $24.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Chris Christie | 3.0%Kalshi | $5.3K | — | — | — | — | — |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This Kalshi-led market, also listed on Gemini, asks which named individuals will be formally charged with a federal crime before January 1, 2027. Each listed person resolves independently, so the probabilities reflect the standalone chance of an indictment for each name rather than a winner-take-all race. Total volume sits near $1.39 million, almost all of it on Kalshi. By raw per-platform pricing, Anthony Fauci is the clearest frontrunner at 56.0% on Kalshi and 57.0% on Gemini, followed by John Brennan around 35–36% and Letitia James at 27–28%. Kalshi also carries a standalone line for Dan J. Sullivan at 64.0%, which is not mirrored on Gemini. Further down the board, names like Jack Smith (24–25%), Ilhan Omar (~21%), and Lisa Cook (17–18%) cluster in the teens and twenties, while figures such as Joe Biden (4.0–6.4%), Hillary Clinton (~7%), and Jerome Powell (4.0–6.0%) sit near the bottom. Cross-platform pricing on Kalshi and Gemini is tight for most names, with the largest visible gap being Joe Biden at roughly 2.4 points. The takeaway: Kalshi and Gemini broadly agree, with Fauci pricing as the most likely person on the list to face a federal charge in 2026.
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