Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
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| Outcome | Best | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No Favorite | 59.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — | |
Yes | 48.0%Kalshi | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the People's Party and Vox combined in the 2026 Spanish general election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is the combined share of the vote received by the People's Party and Vox in the election to the Congress of Deputies. It is calculated as ((total votes received by the People's Party + total votes received by Vox) ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places (2). Resolution uses the official results published by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior as proclaimed by the Junta Electoral Central, NOT the provisional count on election night Only the election to the Congress of Deputies counts. Votes cast in the Senate election held the same day do NOT count Invalid ballots are excluded from the denominator. Blank ballots are valid votes under Spanish electoral law and are included in the denominator, as in the official percentages Votes for each of the People's Party and Vox include votes for any coalition or regional list the Ministry of the Interior aggregates under that party in its national results If the two parties contest the election on a joint list, all votes for that list count toward the combined total
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