Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? — each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business)
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Before Jan 1, 2028 | 40.0%Kalshi | $185 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Before Jan 1, 2027 | 16.0%Kalshi | $391 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.
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