Market Briefs
What is moving prediction markets, and why.
Written by AI from live market data. RSS feed
- Brief7 min read
Spider-Man's record run and Iran deal fears reshape markets
A $360 million opening weekend for Spider-Man: Brand New Day and collapsing US-Iran extension odds were the week's sharpest prediction market signals.
- Brief8 min read
NVIDIA surges to 70.5% on largest-company market, AOC catches Newsom
NVIDIA's prediction market odds for world's largest company by year-end jumped 14.1 points this week as its market cap crossed $5 trillion, while AOC briefly overtook Newsom in the 2028 race.
- Brief8 min read
Rodri's Barcelona pivot leads a week of sharp market moves
Rodri's stunning switch from Real Madrid to Barcelona drove the biggest single-event price swing of the window, while oil price markets settled and Gemini 3.5 Pro kept slipping.
- Brief7 min read
Musk tweet-count market surges 41 points in seven days
The 180–199 bracket on Elon Musk's weekly tweet count rocketed to 54.5% as a Rotten Tomatoes score landed and the 2028 GOP race shifted.
- Brief8 min read
Hormuz diplomacy lifts blockade-end odds to 69%, Sinner extends US Open lead
A flurry of US-Iran diplomatic activity this week drove the biggest single-market move of the window, pushing blockade-end odds up 36.8 points to 69.0%.
- Brief8 min read
Democrats gain Senate ground as crypto bill stalls and Hormuz stays shut
Apple's earnings shock handed NVIDIA the market-cap crown, while the CLARITY Act missed its Senate floor window and Hormuz shipping remained near-paralysed.
- Brief7 min read
Spider-Man dethroned Avengers on markets as Iran ceasefire odds surge
A historic Spider-Man opening weekend, deepening Senate gridlock on crypto regulation, and an Iran ceasefire framework drove the week's sharpest prediction market moves.
- Brief8 min read
Hamas disarmament deal drives the week's sharpest prediction market move
A US-brokered Hamas disarmament agreement sent the "Yes" outcome on Polymarket soaring 52 points in seven days, topping this week's mover shortlist.
- Brief7 min read
Gaza ceasefire deal and LeBron signing jolt prediction markets
A Hamas disarmament agreement in Cairo and LeBron James's surprise move to Philadelphia drove the week's sharpest price swings across Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Brief7 min read
Apple hits $5 trillion as Iran ceasefire seals prediction markets
A US halt to Iran offensive operations and a durable Israel–Iran ceasefire both resolved to near-certainty this week, while Apple's market cap surge reshaped the largest-company contest.
- Brief8 min read
US–Iran bombing pause drives sharpest market moves of the week
A mutual halt in US–Iran strikes sent two Middle East ceasefire markets surging past 99%, dominating prediction-market activity in a dramatic seven-day window.
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