Hamas disarmament deal drives the week's sharpest prediction market move

Six markets lit up across Polymarket and Kalshi in the past seven days, led by a historic Gaza development that erased a near-certain "No" and replaced it with a coin-flip-turned-favourite. Alongside that geopolitical earthquake, a CS2 underdog stormed into near-certainty at a Malta LAN final, Spain's World Cup triumph reshuffled the Ballon d'Or race, and a Spider-Man sequel set all-time preview records with its opening weekend market still live as this brief goes to press.

Hamas disarmament deal rewrites the market overnight

The sharpest move of the window — and arguably of the year — unfolded on Polymarket's Hamas disarmament market. The "No" outcome, which opened the week at 86.0%, collapsed to 34.0% in seven days, a 52-point swing that left "Yes" at 66.0%. The sole venue listing the contract, Polymarket, has accumulated $3,046,278 in total volume, and 92 large trades worth $215,791 changed hands in the past week alone.

The catalyst was a formal agreement announced late on July 31. Hamas said it had reached a deal to disarm, with US President Donald Trump heralding it as a historic step toward peace in Gaza. The agreement, confirmed by the US and other mediators, requires Hamas to surrender its weapons in stages, while Israel would withdraw its forces in parallel. A precise disarmament roadmap was to be prepared within 14 days, subject to approval by an international verification body.

Significant conditionality remains. Hamas negotiator Ghazi Hamad stated the group would not implement any part of the agreement if Israel failed to fulfil its own obligations — a caveat that helps explain why "Yes" sits at 66.0% rather than near certainty. The market resolves at end of year, leaving considerable room for the agreement to either advance or unravel before December 31.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
No	86.0%	34.0%	-52.0 pts

24h volume $140,395 · 1 platform · 92 large trades totalling $215,791 (7d).

Compare live odds for Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Sharks surge to 94% at BLAST Bounty Malta LAN

The BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals champion market on Kalshi has undergone a dramatic repricing. Sharks entered the window priced at just 4.4% but vaulted to 94.0% over seven days — an 89.6-point move that places them on the edge of a decided market. The finals are being held at BLAST Arena Studios in Malta, running through August 2, and the LAN event carries a $740,000 prize pool.

Sharks, a Brazilian team, were given almost no chance heading into the tournament. The event began July 21 with an online stage featuring 32 teams, with only eight advancing to the Malta LAN. Their run through the bracket appears to have been the most surprising of any qualifier, consistent with the tournament's format which, by design, gives lower-ranked sides the ability to select opponents and engineer upsets. The Kalshi market still lists Spirit at 65.0%, Wildcard at 30.0%, MOUZ at 24.0%, G2 at 16.0%, and FaZe at 8.0% as alternatives — a reflection of a multi-outcome structure where individual outcome prices do not sum to 100%.

Only three large trades totalling $3,061 moved through the market in the week, suggesting the 89.6-point move was driven by event results rather than institutional conviction. The contract resolves on August 17.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Sharks	4.4%	94.0%	+89.6 pts

24h volume $33,404 · 1 platform · 3 large trades totalling $3,061 (7d).

Compare live odds for BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals Champion — BLAST Bounty Season 2 Finals

Eizenkot edges above 50% for Israeli premiership

Gadi Eizenkot's market share on the Israeli prime minister question nudged up 2.8 points this window, from 48.8% to 51.6%, crossing the majority threshold for the first time. The contract is listed on both Polymarket — which accounts for the overwhelming bulk of the $30,571,832 in volume — and Limitless. Only two large trades totalling $20,000 went through in the seven-day window, making this a case of quiet accumulation rather than a dramatic repricing.

Eizenkot, the former IDF Chief of Staff and leader of the newly formed Yashar party, has been consolidating his position as the principal challenger to Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election. A Channel 12 poll published in early July showed his party drawing level with Likud at 23 seats, while a Maariv survey in mid-July showed Yashar opening a lead, with Likud polling at its lowest point since June 2025. Netanyahu holds 34.5% on Limitless, while Naftali Bennett sits at 6.5% and Avigdor Lieberman at 4.8% on Polymarket.

The cross-platform picture is relatively clean for Eizenkot, with Polymarket as the primary venue. The market resolves on January 1, 2028, giving it well over a year to run beyond election day — a reminder that coalition formation, rather than vote share alone, will ultimately determine the outcome.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Gadi Eizenkot	48.8%	51.6%	+2.8 pts

24h volume $207,594 · 2 platforms · 2 large trades totalling $20,000 (7d).

Compare live odds for Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Kane holds Ballon d'Or lead as Yamal slips back

Harry Kane remains the consensus favourite for the 2026 Ballon d'Or at 53.2% on Polymarket, while Lamine Yamal fell 4.4 points this week to 20.8%. Kylian Mbappé sits at 10.1%, Rodri at 8.0%, and Lionel Messi at 4.1%. Two large trades totalling $27,878 moved through the $24,479,886 Polymarket market in the window, and 24h volume reached $489,965 — by far the highest of any single market in this shortlist.

The week's price action reflects the aftermath of the 2026 World Cup. Kane scored six goals during England's run, which ended at the semi-finals against Argentina, and had previously fired Bayern Munich to another Bundesliga title. Spain won the tournament, with Rodri winning the Golden Ball for his controlling influence — a development that has seen his odds sharpen from near-irrelevance earlier in the year. The notable cross-platform spread on Rodri — 42.0 points between venues — suggests Limitless and Polymarket have not converged on how to weight his late tournament surge.

Yamal's dip despite Spain's victory is notable. The Barcelona winger inspired the Spanish campaign but the market appears to be weighting Kane's year-long goal record more heavily than the tournament outcome alone. The ceremony, scheduled for late October in London, gives the market roughly three more months to trade.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Lamine Yamal	25.2%	20.8%	-4.4 pts

24h volume $489,965 · 2 platforms · 2 large trades totalling $27,878 (7d).

Compare live odds for Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Iran invasion odds drift further from certainty

The US Iran invasion market on Polymarket moved modestly but attracted substantial capital. The "No" probability rose 3.5 points to 75.5%, with "Yes" at 24.5%. What makes this window notable is the size: 42 large trades totalling $750,527 — the heaviest large-trade activity in this shortlist — passed through the $51,546,299 pool, by far the highest total volume of any event tracked here.

The backdrop is a conflict already under way. US and Israeli military operations against Iran began on February 28, 2026, targeting military and government sites. A memorandum of understanding reached in June 2026 sought to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but hostilities have continued intermittently since. On July 30, the US launched what CENTCOM described as a "heavy wave" of strikes against Iran after a five-night pause, in response to Iranian strikes on a US base in Jordan. The market's resolution question turns on whether a ground invasion occurs — a narrower definition than the air campaign already in progress.

Mixed signals on diplomacy are keeping the 24.5% "Yes" price elevated. Trump has described Iran as getting "more serious" about negotiations, while an Iranian military official reportedly welcomed the prospect of a US ground engagement. The contract resolves on December 31, 2026.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
No	72.0%	75.5%	+3.5 pts

24h volume $611,239 · 1 platform · 42 large trades totalling $750,527 (7d).

Compare live odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Spider-Man preview record pushes 350m+ bracket to 79%

The Polymarket market on Spider-Man: Brand New Day's opening weekend box office moved decisively upward, with the 350m+ bracket rising 53.5 points this week from 25.5% to 79.0%. The 340–350m bracket holds 16.1%, with all lower tiers in single digits. Fifteen large trades totalling $30,280 drove the shift, and the market — which resolves Sunday, August 2 — is essentially pricing the outcome in real time as early grosses come in.

The catalysts were record-setting preview figures. Sony and Marvel's film secured $72 million in domestic preview ticket sales, surpassing the previous all-time record of $60 million set by Avengers: Endgame in 2019. Opening-day estimates of $167–170 million were being circulated by industry trackers, with full-weekend projections ranging from $260 million to well above $300 million. Deadline noted some estimates put the opening in territory that could challenge Endgame's all-time domestic opening weekend record of $357.1 million.

The 79.0% probability on 350m+ reflects a market that has rapidly digested the preview data and concluded that a sub-350m opening is now the tail risk. The 16.1% on the 340–350m bracket captures residual uncertainty about whether the film's pace sustains through Sunday or front-loads heavily on opening night — a pattern that has caught previous superhero sequels short of projections.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
350m+	25.5%	79.0%	+53.5 pts

24h volume $35,975 · 1 platform · 15 large trades totalling $30,280 (7d).

Compare live odds for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)

The takeaway

This window's collective signal is that political breakthroughs — however provisional — move prediction markets faster and further than any other category. The Hamas disarmament deal produced the week's dominant price swing, and the Iran invasion market absorbed by far the most large-trade capital even as it moved only modestly, suggesting sophisticated participants are paying close attention to a conflict's ground-level detail rather than its headlines. Entertainment markets, meanwhile, responded almost instantaneously to verifiable data, illustrating how quickly real-world evidence collapses uncertainty when it arrives at scale.