Senate Stall Pushes Clarity Act Odds to 13.5% Yes

A burst of volume — up more than 4,457% in seven days — has made the Clarity Act the week's most-watched market, even as the price moved against passage. The Senate recessed without a floor vote, leaving the bill's fate tied to a September cloture vote with little calendar room to spare.

Senate Recess Slams the Door on Clarity Act

The Senate filed a cloture motion on H.R. 3633 on August 8 and then immediately recessed, pushing the next procedural vote to September 15 — with reconciliation between the House and Senate texts still required before any presidential signature. That compressed timeline sent "No" up 6.1 points to 86.5%, the only platform listing this market being Polymarket. Even if cloture passes in September, conference committee negotiations and final passage would need to clear before year-end, a sequence the market now prices as unlikely.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
No	80.4%	86.5%	+6.1 pts

24h volume $1,615,856 · 1 platform · 40 large trades totalling $249,156 (7d).

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Russell Edges Up as Norris Wins Zandvoort

Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 drivers' championship with 242 points, 59 clear of Mercedes teammate George Russell after 12 of 23 rounds, which explains why Antonelli sits at 77.5% on the market. Lando Norris won the Dutch Grand Prix and made the biggest points haul at Zandvoort, nudging Russell back into second and lifting his own price; Russell's 7.5% reflects a realistic but distant shot for the Briton. The 44.5-point cross-platform spread on Russell's odds is the widest in this field, suggesting venues are digesting the Zandvoort result at very different speeds.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
George Russell	5.5%	7.5%	+2.0 pts

24h volume $211,841 · 5 platforms · 2 large trades totalling $4,858 (7d).

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Kane Holds Firm Ahead of London Ceremony

Harry Kane has risen 3.4 points to 62.5% on the back of a domestic double with Bayern Munich and six World Cup goals, even as England fell short of the final against Argentina. The 2026 ceremony will be held in London for the first time, on October 26, giving Kane a home-crowd backdrop that adds symbolic weight to his candidacy. Lamine Yamal, whose Spain side won the World Cup, sits at 18.5% and represents the main threat, with a 2.6-point cross-platform spread suggesting some price discovery is still in progress.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Harry Kane	59.1%	62.5%	+3.4 pts

24h volume $208,773 · 3 platforms · 4 large trades totalling $58,250 (7d).

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Bitcoin Surge Reshapes End-Year Price Bands

Bitcoin was trading around $64,000 in mid-August before surging past $76,000 on August 21, driven by a White House crypto meeting and a massive short squeeze. That rapid move reshuffled the Kalshi range market, with the $80,000–$84,999.99 band gaining 8.2 points to 13.5% as the most-moved bracket this week. Volume on Kalshi is up 732% over the prior week, reflecting traders repositioning around a price level that was barely in play days ago.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
80,000 to 84,999.99	5.4%	13.5%	+8.2 pts

24h volume $279,453 · 2 platforms.

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Eizenkot Leads as Israeli Vote Nears

Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party has pulled level with — or narrowly ahead of — Netanyahu's Likud in recent polls, with one survey giving Yashar 24 seats to Likud's 23, and that momentum is reflected in his 5.1-point move to 57.8% on the market. Israeli elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, tightening the resolution timeline. The 5.7-point cross-platform spread between Polymarket and Polymarket US on Eizenkot's price suggests venues are still calibrating how coalition arithmetic converts seat counts into a prime ministerial outcome.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Gadi Eizenkot	52.7%	57.8%	+5.1 pts

24h volume $47,852 · 3 platforms · 5 large trades totalling $38,134 (7d).

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Ossoff Sits Atop a Fragmented 2028 Field

Jon Ossoff now leads this market at 24.5%, despite repeatedly stating he has no interest in running for president in 2028, with his viral Senate reelection campaign in Georgia driving name recognition and prediction-market interest simultaneously. The field is unusually compressed — Gavin Newsom at 22.0%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 19.5%, and Kamala Harris at 14.5% are all within striking distance — making the cross-platform spreads on several candidates, particularly Ossoff's 7.0-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi, especially notable.

24h volume $857,477 · 2 platforms · 9 large trades totalling $42,208 (7d).

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The takeaway

Crypto regulation and Bitcoin's price path dominated this window, with the CLARITY Act's Senate delay and a sharp mid-August BTC rally both drawing outsized volume. Political markets — from Israel to Georgia — show compressed, rapidly re-pricing fields where small news items are moving probability by several points at a time.