Spider-Man dethroned Avengers on markets as Iran ceasefire odds surge

The seven days to 2 August delivered some of the largest single-event swings seen in this window. The Iran ceasefire market continued to attract the heaviest dollar flow, accumulating $473,174 in large trades alone. Hollywood reshaped entertainment betting after Spider-Man: Brand New Day shattered preview records, while crypto legislation hit a Senate wall and the Federal Reserve's hold at July's meeting left the year-end rate-hike question very much alive. Across six markets, the dominant theme is uncertainty resolving — sometimes in one direction, sometimes in two.

Iran ceasefire odds climb as nuclear framework takes shape

The "No" outcome on an effective US-Iran ceasefire fell 11.0 points over the week, from 43.1% to 32.0%, leaving "Yes" priced at 73.5% on Polymarket — the market's single listing venue. With $473,174 in large trades recorded across 26 transactions in seven days, this was the window's most actively contested market by institutional size.

The backdrop is a conflict that began in February 2026, when Israel and the United States launched air strikes against Iran. A Pakistan-brokered two-week pause took hold on 8 April, and President Trump subsequently extended the ceasefire indefinitely on 21 April. In June, the two sides announced an MOU framework including a 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, paving the way for nuclear negotiations. The memorandum also envisaged a broader discussion period covering sanctions relief and a reconstruction plan for Iran.

Market confidence in a durable pause has been building, though the MOU itself notes several unresolved items — including the inspection of Iran's nuclear programme and the disposal of enriched material. The multi-tier pricing visible in the data (Yes outcomes at 73.5%, 68.0%, and 55.0% across different resolution windows) reflects that traders are more certain about a near-term pause than about a lasting settlement by the August 31 deadline.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
No	43.1%	32.0%	-11.0 pts

24h volume $585,448 · 1 platform · 26 large trades totalling $473,174 (7d).

Compare live odds for US x Iran Effective Ceasfire by...? (2 week pause)

Antonelli's championship lead pushes his title odds to 74.3%

Kimi Antonelli's implied probability of winning the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship rose 5.3 points this week, from 69.0% to 74.3%, with the cheapest entry sitting at 73.7% on Limitless. The market is listed on both Polymarket — where the lifetime volume stands at $200,642,854 — and Limitless, though the two platforms show a modest spread at the top of the book.

The move tracks a dominant on-track narrative. Antonelli won the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa, his fourth victory of the season, and headed into the summer break 50 points clear of Lewis Hamilton in the standings, with George Russell a further 9 points adrift in third. Hamilton's rise to runner-up — overtaking Russell — has reshuffled the chasing pack without materially threatening Antonelli's margin.

Hamilton is priced at 9.9% and Russell at 5.5%, both on Limitless, reflecting the scale of the gap they need to close across the season's second half. With the championship leader carrying a 50-point buffer into the recess, the market is pricing a continuation of the status quo barring significant mechanical misfortune — of the kind Antonelli did suffer at Silverstone, where a technical issue allowed rivals to close in before he recovered ground at Spa.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Kimi Antonelli	69.0%	74.3%	+5.3 pts

24h volume $58,192 · 2 platforms · 10 large trades totalling $38,312 (7d).

Compare live odds for F1 Drivers' Champion

Pegula leads WTA Washington after Ngounoue's elimination

The Washington WTA market recorded the window's largest single-candidate collapse: Clervie Ngounoue fell 40.1 points, from 41.1% to 1.0% on Kalshi, as the Washington D.C. wildcard was eliminated from the Mubadala DC Open. The tournament's sole listing platform, Kalshi, carries a total volume of $82,389, and no large trades were recorded during the period — suggesting the repricing was driven by the straightforward fact of Ngounoue's exit from the draw rather than any informed pre-elimination positioning.

With Ngounoue out, Jessica Pegula leads the field at 61.0%, followed by Alexandra Eala at 42.0%. The remaining named players — Gabriela Knutson, Rebecca Sramkova, Julieta Pareja, and Kamilla Rakhimova — each sit at 1.0%, consistent with early-round eliminations or near-elimination status in the draw.

Pegula and Eala together account for the vast majority of implied probability, but the two prices sum above 100%, reflecting Kalshi's market structure across separate binary contracts rather than a shared pool. The tournament resolves 5 September.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Clervie Ngounoue	41.1%	1.0%	-40.1 pts

24h volume $25,267 · 1 platform.

Compare live odds for WTA Washington Winner — 2026 WTA Washington

Fed holds in July but hike odds stay above two-thirds

The probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end slipped 2.7 points over the week, from 69.2% to 66.5% on Polymarket. The move is modest in isolation, but the market attracted 56 large trades totalling $394,836 — indicating that informed participants remain active around the question even as the headline number barely moved. The market resolves in December and carries $6,126,574 in total Polymarket volume.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, a fifth consecutive hold. Three committee members dissented in favour of an immediate 25-basis-point increase — the largest dissent bloc of the tightening-adjacent cycle — leaving the door open to a September move. Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed's absolute commitment to its 2% inflation target, even as the central bank acknowledged supply shocks in the energy sector as a partial driver of elevated prices.

The small downward drift in "Yes" probability likely reflects the July hold itself: with one meeting now behind us without action, the calendar window for hikes is slightly narrower. But with investors anticipating between one and two hikes by year-end, and the Iran-linked energy price channel still live, the market continues to price a hike as the most probable single outcome for 2026.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Yes	69.2%	66.5%	-2.7 pts

24h volume $208,332 · 1 platform · 56 large trades totalling $394,836 (7d).

Compare live odds for Fed rate hike in 2026?

Clarity Act stalls in Senate, passage odds sink to 28%

The probability of the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) being signed into law in 2026 dropped sharply this week: "No" rose 11.5 points, from 62.5% to 74.0%, leaving "Yes" at just 28.0% on Polymarket. The market drew 29 large trades worth $370,927 in seven days, making it the second-most actively traded event by institutional size in this window.

The legislative picture clarifies the move. The House passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act by 294 to 134 in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15-to-9 in May 2026. However, as of late July, the bill has no scheduled floor vote, no cloture motion, and no date on the Senate calendar. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he does not expect the bill to reach the floor before the chamber breaks for its summer recess around 7 August. The cloture math is also difficult: Republicans hold 53 seats, and 60 votes are needed, meaning roughly seven to ten Democrats must cross over — yet several who supported earlier drafts formally opposed the latest version after an ethics provision was weakened.

A July 22 Republican update to the draft — which would ban federal officials from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrency — was met with Democratic criticism that enforcement mechanisms were inadequate. With the summer recess approaching and key swing votes uncommitted, the market reflects a near-consensus view that 2026 passage has become a long shot.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
No	62.5%	74.0%	+11.5 pts

24h volume $135,044 · 1 platform · 29 large trades totalling $370,927 (7d).

Compare live odds for Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Spider-Man overtakes Avengers: Doomsday after record debut

The biggest single-week swing in entertainment markets belonged to the box office race: Avengers: Doomsday fell 28.7 points, from 65.3% to 36.5%, while Spider-Man: Brand New Day surged to 61.0% on Polymarket — all on a single listing platform with $1,931,826 in total volume.

The repricing followed a record-breaking theatrical debut. Spider-Man: Brand New Day earned $72 million in Wednesday and Thursday preview screenings, surpassing the previous all-time domestic record held by Avengers: Endgame. Friday's opening day gross reached $168 million — itself a new record — with Sony projecting a $325 million domestic total through Sunday, a figure that would rank among the greatest opening weekends in Hollywood history and potentially challenge Endgame's all-time three-day record of $357.1 million.

Avengers: Doomsday has not yet opened, and its remaining 36.5% probability reflects market expectations that it could still post a larger number when it arrives. The five remaining named candidates — Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping — are each priced at 0.3% or below, indicating the race has effectively narrowed to two titles. The market resolves at year-end.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Avengers: Doomsday	65.3%	36.5%	-28.7 pts

24h volume $35,554 · 1 platform · 5 large trades totalling $13,692 (7d).

Compare live odds for Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

The takeaway

This window's flow concentrated in geopolitics and legislative risk. The Iran ceasefire and Clarity Act markets together absorbed more than $840,000 in large trades, suggesting institutional attention is fixed on two slow-moving resolution processes — a diplomatic framework and a Senate calendar — rather than the faster-moving sports and entertainment outcomes that generated the sharpest percentage swings.