Hormuz diplomacy lifts blockade-end odds to 69%, Sinner extends US Open lead

Prediction markets this window were dominated by one storyline: the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the halting diplomacy surrounding it. Three of the six events on this shortlist are directly tied to the conflict, and all three moved meaningfully — two driven by fresh optimism about a deal, one stubbornly stuck near certainty that traffic will not recover by month-end. Away from geopolitics, Jannik Sinner's relentless 2026 season pushed his US Open odds further clear of the field, while a settled US CPI print and a Southeast Asian football fixture rounded out an eventful seven days.

Hormuz back-to-normal by August 31 remains a long shot

The market asks whether vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of this month — a question with enormous consequences for global energy supply, given that the strait historically carried roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas.

The "Yes" outcome rose 6.5 points over the past seven days, from 9.5% to 16.0%, on Polymarket — the only platform listing this contract. Despite that move, the market still prices the near-term outcome at 84.0% No, a figure that reflects the pace of the diplomatic calendar rather than any fundamental optimism. Deal drafts are being circulated and talks are ongoing, but experts have noted that even after a formal agreement, clearing the waterway of potential obstacles such as undersea mines could alone take several weeks.

Volume surged 469% over the week, with 84 large trades totalling $1,788,863 — a level of activity that signals serious institutional attention. The 24h volume of $1,840,964 was the highest of any event on this shortlist, suggesting traders are actively repricing the August window as diplomatic noise intensifies, even if the consensus view remains firmly that a full restoration of traffic before September 1 is unlikely.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Yes	9.5%	16.0%	+6.5 pts

24h volume $1,840,964 · 1 platform · 84 large trades totalling $1,788,863 (7d).

Compare live odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

US blockade-end odds leap 36.8 points in a week

This market — which prices a series of deadlines for a formal US announcement that the Iranian blockade has ended — saw the sharpest absolute move of the window. The nearest-dated "Yes" outcome climbed 36.8 points in seven days, from 32.2% to 69.0%, on Polymarket, which carries $4,172,376 in total volume on the contract. Longer-dated outcomes are priced even higher: the 95.3% and 92.0% tiers suggest the market treats an eventual announcement as near-certain, with the live debate being about timing rather than direction.

The news backdrop explains the move. On August 1, Trump announced the US was prepared for fresh military action, but hours later a two-week ceasefire was announced. On August 2, a regional mediation official described a proposal calling for the reopening of the strait and a halt to regional attacks in exchange for the US ending its naval blockade and permitting Iranian oil exports. Qatar's Foreign Ministry confirmed that deal drafts were in "very progressive stages" as of August 4. US Central Command reported it had redirected 44 commercial vessels and disabled two others under the blockade.

None of those developments constitutes a signed agreement, and Iran's senior military officials warned publicly that Tehran would not allow any shipping route it had not authorised. The gap between the 69.0% near-term price and the 95.3% longer-dated price captures precisely that uncertainty: the market accepts a deal is coming, but remains unsure whether formal announcement arrives before the nearest resolution date.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Yes	32.2%	69.0%	+36.8 pts

24h volume $789,427 · 1 platform · 46 large trades totalling $266,893 (7d).

Compare live odds for US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

July CPI market settled well above -0.4% threshold

This Kalshi contract asked where the US Consumer Price Index for July 2026 would land on a monthly basis, with a ladder of outcomes ranging from above -0.4% to above 0.5%. By the close of the window, the "Above -0.4%" outcome had reached 99.0% — a 94.5-point move over seven days — effectively settling the question ahead of the official BLS release scheduled for August 12.

The context is a June CPI print that came in at -0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, which was the largest single-month decline since April 2020, driven primarily by a sharp drop in energy prices. The market had priced meaningful probability on the possibility that July could match or undershoot that reading; as forecasters revised their estimates upward, that probability collapsed. The "Above 0.0%" outcome sits at 67.0%, indicating the consensus expectation is for a positive monthly print in July.

The most striking feature of this market is the cross-platform spread. The consensus on Polymarket for "Above -0.4%" sits at 99.0%, while Kalshi's cheapest entry is 4.0% — a 95.0-point spread that is almost certainly an artifact of differing resolution methodologies or contract specifications rather than a genuine disagreement about the outcome. With formal resolution set for August 12, this market is effectively closed.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Above -0.4%	4.5%	99.0%	+94.5 pts

24h volume $55,435 · 1 platform · 1 large trade totalling $842 (7d).

Compare live odds for CPI in July — In Jul 2026

Year-end Hormuz normalisation odds cross 61% for first time

Where the August-31 contract prices the near-impossibility of a rapid resolution, the December-31 contract captures the market's medium-term assessment of the crisis. "Yes" rose 7.1 points over the week, from 54.4% to 61.5%, on Polymarket, which holds $7,115,786 in total volume — making it the deepest of the three Hormuz-linked markets in this window.

The move is a direct reflection of the same diplomatic signals driving the blockade-end contract: circulating deal drafts, ceasefire talks, and Gulf state mediation suggest the conflict has an exit path, even if the timeline remains contested. A framework agreement announced in June had outlined provisions for traffic to return "in proportion to the numbers of prewar" within 30 days of signing — but that agreement subsequently broke down, and fighting resumed in July.

At 61.5%, the market is saying more likely than not that the strait will be functionally normal for commercial shipping by the new year, but the 38.5% No share reflects genuine uncertainty about whether a durable deal can be struck and implemented — including demining operations, the lifting of mutual blockades, and verification — within five months of a conflict that has already outlasted multiple ceasefire attempts.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Yes	54.4%	61.5%	+7.1 pts

24h volume $206,286 · 1 platform · 73 large trades totalling $242,552 (7d).

Compare live odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Vietnam priced as heavy favourite in ASEAN Cup group closer

This fixture is the final Group A match of the 2026 ASEAN Championship, played at My Dinh National Stadium in Hanoi on August 7. Vietnam enter as defending champions, having won the tournament for the third time last cycle, and the market reflects that home advantage clearly: Kalshi prices Vietnam at 92.0% to win the match outright.

The most eye-catching data point is the 7-day move on the Draw outcome: it collapsed 75.5 points, from 80.5% to 5.0%. That swing almost certainly reflects the market correcting from a misconfigured or illiquid starting price rather than any real shift in expectations — the head-to-head record between the two sides shows Vietnam have won all six of their previous meetings, with aggregate scorelines that suggest Cambodia have rarely been competitive.

Volume is modest — $101,615 concentrated on Kalshi's match-winner market, with Polymarket's suite of side markets recording negligible turnover — and the single large trade of $600 confirms this is a low-stakes fixture for prediction market participants. The market is listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi, though meaningful liquidity exists only on the latter.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Draw	80.5%	5.0%	-75.5 pts

24h volume $100,851 · 2 platforms · 1 large trade totalling $600 (7d).

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Sinner extends US Open lead to 58.5% after Wimbledon triumph

Jannik Sinner's probability of winning the 2026 US Open rose 6.1 points over the week, from 52.4% to 58.5% across the three platforms listing this market — Polymarket, Kalshi and Limitless. The cross-platform spread on Sinner is 4.5 points, with the cheapest entry at 54.0% on Limitless and the consensus at 58.5%. Volume jumped 338% week-on-week, and 24h turnover reached $305,519, with Polymarket accounting for $5,155,078 in total contract volume.

The move reflects a string of extraordinary results. Sinner successfully defended his Wimbledon title in July, adding a second crown at the All England Club to what has already been described as a historic season: he completed the Career Golden Masters — winning all nine ATP Masters 1000 titles — and entered the US Open swing as world No. 1 with a 2026 season record of extraordinary consistency. He has opted to skip the Canadian Open but is entered for Cincinnati before Flushing Meadows.

The second and third spots in the market belong to Carlos Alcaraz at 11.0% and Alexander Zverev at 9.8%. Alcaraz, the defending US Open champion, has not competed since April due to a wrist injury, though reports indicate he has returned to practice courts ahead of the hard-court swing. The 10.2-point cross-platform spread on Alcaraz — cheapest at 10.5% on Polymarket — is the widest spread of any named player, suggesting platforms are genuinely uncertain how to price his return from a lengthy absence.

Outcome	7 days ago	Now	Change
Jannik Sinner	52.4%	58.5%	+6.1 pts

24h volume $305,519 · 3 platforms · 5 large trades totalling $15,726 (7d).

Compare live odds for 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

The takeaway

The dominant theme across this window is a single geopolitical event — the Strait of Hormuz crisis — radiating across multiple markets simultaneously, from near-term traffic normalisation to year-end recovery to the formal end of blockade. The concentration of volume and large-trade activity in those three contracts, alongside a surge in Sinner positioning ahead of the US Open, suggests market attention is split almost entirely between Middle East diplomacy and the final Grand Slam of the year.