GAPS
505 gaps
340/505 gaps on this page are still profitable after both venues' trading fees. We show every real price gap, including the ones fees turn into a loss — sites that show more "arbitrage" are usually counting the fees you would pay as profit.
| Outcome | Event | Buy at | Buy opposite | Capital | Hold | Fees | Net edge | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandra Hüller | Oscar Winner: Best Supporting Actress — In 2… | 8.6%Polymarket | 91.0%Kalshi | $1 | ~175d | −1.0¢ | -0.6¢ | −$0 | -0.6% |
| Republican Party | FL-15 House Election Winner | 92.0%Kalshi | 7.3%Polymarket | $10 | ~43d | −0.8¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Democratic | Oklahoma Governor winner? — In 2026 | 8.0%Polymarket | 91.3%Kalshi | $6 | ~43d | −0.9¢ | -0.2¢ | −$0 | -0.2% |
| 9 | How many House seats will Democrats win in V… | 10.0%Polymarket | 89.0%Kalshi | $20 | ~43d | −1.0¢ | -0.0¢ | −$0 | -0.0% |
| Democratic | ME-01 House Election Winner | 95.0%Polymarket | 4.7%Kalshi | $5 | ~44d | −0.5¢ | -0.2¢ | −$0 | -0.2% |
| Republican | TX-29 House Election Winner | 4.9%Kalshi | 95.0%Polymarket | $3 | ~44d | −0.5¢ | -0.4¢ | −$0 | -0.4% |
| Cleitinho Azevedo | Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner | 90.1%Polymarket | 9.0%Kalshi | $45 | ~13d | −0.9¢ | -0.0¢ | −$0 | -0.0% |
| Republican Party | MN-05 House Election Winner | 5.4%Polymarket | 94.3%Kalshi | $5 | ~44d | −0.6¢ | -0.3¢ | −$0 | -0.3% |
| Democratic | IL-01 House Election Winner | 94.5%Kalshi | 5.4%Polymarket | $3 | ~44d | −0.6¢ | -0.5¢ | −$0 | -0.5% |
| Republican Party | VA-06 House Election Winner | 93.0%Polymarket | 6.7%Kalshi | $4 | ~44d | −0.7¢ | -0.4¢ | −$0 | -0.4% |
| Jeremiyah Love | Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner? — 2026-… | 21.0%Polymarket | 77.0%Kalshi | $25 | ~161d | −2.1¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Josh Allen | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB — 20… | 39.0%Kalshi | 58.0%Gemini | $5 | ~112d | −3.4¢ | -0.4¢ | −$0 | -0.4% |
| Democratic Party | CA-52 House Election Winner | 95.9%Polymarket | 4.0%Kalshi | $7 | ~44d | −0.4¢ | -0.3¢ | −$0 | -0.3% |
| The Odyssey | Oscar Winner: Best Makeup and Hairstyling — … | 17.0%Polymarket | 82.0%Kalshi | $3 | ~175d | −1.7¢ | -0.7¢ | −$0 | -0.7% |
| Democratic | NC-08 House Election Winner | 3.9%Polymarket | 95.8%Kalshi | $22 | ~43d | −0.4¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Jon Ossoff | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028 | 4.5%Polymarket | 95.1%Kalshi | $32 | ~689d | −0.5¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Texas A&M | College Football Playoff Qualifiers — 2026-2… | 10.0%Kalshi | 89.0%Gemini | $10 | ~100d | −1.3¢ | -0.3¢ | −$0 | -0.3% |
| Democratic | PA-17 House winner? — In 2026 | 94.0%Polymarket | 5.7%Kalshi | $11 | ~44d | −0.6¢ | -0.3¢ | −$0 | -0.3% |
| Houston | College Football Big 12 Championship Winner … | 4.0%Kalshi | 95.9%Polymarket | $10 | ~104d | −0.5¢ | -0.4¢ | −$0 | -0.4% |
| Republican Party | FL-27 House Election Winner | 71.0%Polymarket | 28.0%Kalshi | $3 | ~43d | −2.2¢ | -1.2¢ | −$0 | -1.2% |
| 5 | How many House seats will Democrats win in A… | 49.0%Kalshi | 49.0%Polymarket | $5 | ~43d | −2.7¢ | -0.7¢ | −$0 | -0.8% |
| Democratic | NY-04 House winner? — In 2026 | 91.0%Polymarket | 8.2%Kalshi | $76 | ~44d | −0.9¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Democratic | Florida Senate winner? — In 2026 | 10.0%Polymarket | 89.0%Kalshi | $101 | ~409d | −1.0¢ | -0.0¢ | −$0 | -0.0% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — B… | 7.4%Kalshi | 92.0%Gemini | $12 | ~102d | −1.0¢ | -0.4¢ | −$0 | -0.4% |
| Democratic | IL-10 House Election Winner | 96.0%Polymarket | 3.7%Kalshi | $50 | ~44d | −0.4¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Democratic | Colorado Senate Election Winner | 96.9%Polymarket | 2.9%Kalshi | $44 | ~43d | −0.3¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Democratic | Illinois Governor winner? — In 2026 | 96.0%Kalshi | 3.8%Polymarket | $26 | ~43d | −0.4¢ | -0.2¢ | −$0 | -0.2% |
| G2 Esports | G2 Esports vs Shifters | 66.0%Polymarket | 33.0%Kalshi | $3 | ~1d | −2.7¢ | -1.7¢ | −$0 | -1.7% |
| Republican | TX-32 House Election Winner | 91.9%Kalshi | 8.0%Polymarket | $10 | ~44d | −0.8¢ | -0.7¢ | −$0 | -0.7% |
| Republican Party | CA-48 House Election Winner | 12.0%Polymarket | 87.0%Kalshi | $35 | ~44d | −1.2¢ | -0.2¢ | −$0 | -0.2% |
| Yes Benjamin Netanyahu | Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before J… | 4.9%Polymarket | 95.0%Kalshi | $18 | ~102d | −0.5¢ | -0.4¢ | −$0 | -0.4% |
| Katie Britt | 2028 Republican VP nominee — In 2028 | 2.8%Kalshi | 97.0%Gemini | $40 | ~776d | −0.4¢ | -0.2¢ | −$0 | -0.2% |
| 9 | How many House seats will Democrats win in T… | 9.0%Polymarket | 90.9%Kalshi | $10 | ~43d | −0.9¢ | -0.8¢ | −$0 | -0.8% |
| Republican party | CA-22 House winner? — In 2026 | 8.0%Polymarket | 91.5%Kalshi | $24 | ~44d | −0.8¢ | -0.3¢ | −$0 | -0.3% |
| Republican | NC-09 House Election Winner | 74.0%Polymarket | 24.0%Kalshi | $174 | ~43d | −2.0¢ | -0.0¢ | −$0 | -0.0% |
| Matt Damon | Oscar Winner: Best Actor — In 2027 | 25.0%Polymarket | 73.0%Kalshi | $26 | ~175d | −2.3¢ | -0.3¢ | −$0 | -0.3% |
| Melissa Amaya | Amaya vs Machado | 35.0%Kalshi | 64.0%Polymarket | $5 | ~6d | −2.7¢ | -1.7¢ | −$0 | -1.8% |
| CJ Carr | Pro Football #1 Overall Pick in 2027 — 1st P… | 14.0%Kalshi | 85.0%Polymarket | $41 | ~214d | −1.2¢ | -0.2¢ | −$0 | -0.2% |
| 3 | How many dissenting votes at the October Fed… | 10.0%Kalshi | 89.0%Polymarket | $79 | ~38d | −1.1¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Disclosure Day | Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner | 7.2%Polymarket | 92.0%Kalshi | $198 | ~175d | −0.8¢ | -0.0¢ | −$0 | -0.0% |
| Republican party | VA-07 House winner? — In 2026 | 7.3%Polymarket | 92.0%Kalshi | $124 | ~45d | −0.8¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top RB — 20… | 34.0%Kalshi | 65.0%Gemini | $5 | ~112d | −3.2¢ | -2.2¢ | −$0 | -2.2% |
| BYU | College Football Playoff Qualifiers — 2026-2… | 29.0%Gemini | 69.0%Kalshi | $11 | ~100d | −2.9¢ | -0.9¢ | −$0 | -1.0% |
| Andy Barr | Kentucky Senate winner? — In 2026 | 95.2%Kalshi | 4.7%Polymarket | $27 | ~43d | −0.5¢ | -0.4¢ | −$0 | -0.4% |
| Democratic | NV-04 House Election Winner | 93.0%Polymarket | 6.9%Kalshi | $18 | ~45d | −0.7¢ | -0.6¢ | −$0 | -0.6% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | MLS Cup Winner 2026 | 21.4%Polymarket | 77.0%Kalshi | $75 | ~89d | −1.7¢ | -0.1¢ | −$0 | -0.1% |
| Republican | Florida Senate winner? — In 2026 | 89.0%Kalshi | 10.0%Polymarket | $248 | ~409d | −1.0¢ | -0.0¢ | −$0 | -0.0% |
| 5 | How many House seats will Democrats win in F… | 12.0%Kalshi | 87.0%Polymarket | $59 | ~43d | −1.2¢ | -0.2¢ | −$0 | -0.2% |
| 7 | How many House seats will the Democrats win … | 3.9%Polymarket | 96.0%Kalshi | $40 | ~43d | −0.4¢ | -0.3¢ | −$0 | -0.3% |
| Democratic party | AZ-02 House winner? — In 2026 | 29.0%Polymarket | 69.0%Kalshi | $39 | ~45d | −2.3¢ | -0.3¢ | −$0 | -0.3% |
Sandra Hüller
Oscar Winner: Best Supporting Actress — In 2027Buy at8.6%PolymarketBuy opposite91.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.6%
Capital$1Hold~175dFees−1.0¢Net edge-0.6¢
Republican Party
FL-15 House Election WinnerBuy at92.0%KalshiBuy opposite7.3%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$10Hold~43dFees−0.8¢Net edge-0.1¢
Democratic
Oklahoma Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at8.0%PolymarketBuy opposite91.3%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.2%
Capital$6Hold~43dFees−0.9¢Net edge-0.2¢
9
How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? — On Nov 3, 2026Buy at10.0%PolymarketBuy opposite89.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.0%
Capital$20Hold~43dFees−1.0¢Net edge-0.0¢
Democratic
ME-01 House Election WinnerBuy at95.0%PolymarketBuy opposite4.7%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.2%
Capital$5Hold~44dFees−0.5¢Net edge-0.2¢
Republican
TX-29 House Election WinnerBuy at4.9%KalshiBuy opposite95.0%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.4%
Capital$3Hold~44dFees−0.5¢Net edge-0.4¢
Cleitinho Azevedo
Minas Gerais Governor Election WinnerBuy at90.1%PolymarketBuy opposite9.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.0%
Capital$45Hold~13dFees−0.9¢Net edge-0.0¢
Republican Party
MN-05 House Election WinnerBuy at5.4%PolymarketBuy opposite94.3%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.3%
Capital$5Hold~44dFees−0.6¢Net edge-0.3¢
Democratic
IL-01 House Election WinnerBuy at94.5%KalshiBuy opposite5.4%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.5%
Capital$3Hold~44dFees−0.6¢Net edge-0.5¢
Republican Party
VA-06 House Election WinnerBuy at93.0%PolymarketBuy opposite6.7%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.4%
Capital$4Hold~44dFees−0.7¢Net edge-0.4¢
Jeremiyah Love
Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner? — 2026-27 seasonBuy at21.0%PolymarketBuy opposite77.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$25Hold~161dFees−2.1¢Net edge-0.1¢
Josh Allen
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at39.0%KalshiBuy opposite58.0%Gemini
Profit−$0Return-0.4%
Capital$5Hold~112dFees−3.4¢Net edge-0.4¢
Democratic Party
CA-52 House Election WinnerBuy at95.9%PolymarketBuy opposite4.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.3%
Capital$7Hold~44dFees−0.4¢Net edge-0.3¢
The Odyssey
Oscar Winner: Best Makeup and Hairstyling — In 2027Buy at17.0%PolymarketBuy opposite82.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.7%
Capital$3Hold~175dFees−1.7¢Net edge-0.7¢
Democratic
NC-08 House Election WinnerBuy at3.9%PolymarketBuy opposite95.8%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$22Hold~43dFees−0.4¢Net edge-0.1¢
Jon Ossoff
2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028Buy at4.5%PolymarketBuy opposite95.1%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$32Hold~689dFees−0.5¢Net edge-0.1¢
Texas A&M
College Football Playoff Qualifiers — 2026-27Buy at10.0%KalshiBuy opposite89.0%Gemini
Profit−$0Return-0.3%
Capital$10Hold~100dFees−1.3¢Net edge-0.3¢
Democratic
PA-17 House winner? — In 2026Buy at94.0%PolymarketBuy opposite5.7%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.3%
Capital$11Hold~44dFees−0.6¢Net edge-0.3¢
Houston
College Football Big 12 Championship Winner — 2026Buy at4.0%KalshiBuy opposite95.9%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.4%
Capital$10Hold~104dFees−0.5¢Net edge-0.4¢
Republican Party
FL-27 House Election WinnerBuy at71.0%PolymarketBuy opposite28.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-1.2%
Capital$3Hold~43dFees−2.2¢Net edge-1.2¢
5
How many House seats will Democrats win in Arizona? — On Nov 3, 2026Buy at49.0%KalshiBuy opposite49.0%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.8%
Capital$5Hold~43dFees−2.7¢Net edge-0.7¢
Democratic
NY-04 House winner? — In 2026Buy at91.0%PolymarketBuy opposite8.2%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$76Hold~44dFees−0.9¢Net edge-0.1¢
Democratic
Florida Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at10.0%PolymarketBuy opposite89.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.0%
Capital$101Hold~409dFees−1.0¢Net edge-0.0¢
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027Buy at7.4%KalshiBuy opposite92.0%Gemini
Profit−$0Return-0.4%
Capital$12Hold~102dFees−1.0¢Net edge-0.4¢
Democratic
IL-10 House Election WinnerBuy at96.0%PolymarketBuy opposite3.7%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$50Hold~44dFees−0.4¢Net edge-0.1¢
Democratic
Colorado Senate Election WinnerBuy at96.9%PolymarketBuy opposite2.9%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$44Hold~43dFees−0.3¢Net edge-0.1¢
Democratic
Illinois Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at96.0%KalshiBuy opposite3.8%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.2%
Capital$26Hold~43dFees−0.4¢Net edge-0.2¢
G2 Esports
G2 Esports vs ShiftersBuy at66.0%PolymarketBuy opposite33.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-1.7%
Capital$3Hold~1dFees−2.7¢Net edge-1.7¢
Republican
TX-32 House Election WinnerBuy at91.9%KalshiBuy opposite8.0%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.7%
Capital$10Hold~44dFees−0.8¢Net edge-0.7¢
Republican Party
CA-48 House Election WinnerBuy at12.0%PolymarketBuy opposite87.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.2%
Capital$35Hold~44dFees−1.2¢Net edge-0.2¢
YesBenjamin Netanyahu
Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before Jan 2027Buy at4.9%PolymarketBuy opposite95.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.4%
Capital$18Hold~102dFees−0.5¢Net edge-0.4¢
Katie Britt
2028 Republican VP nominee — In 2028Buy at2.8%KalshiBuy opposite97.0%Gemini
Profit−$0Return-0.2%
Capital$40Hold~776dFees−0.4¢Net edge-0.2¢
9
How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas? — On Nov 3, 2026Buy at9.0%PolymarketBuy opposite90.9%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.8%
Capital$10Hold~43dFees−0.9¢Net edge-0.8¢
Republican party
CA-22 House winner? — In 2026Buy at8.0%PolymarketBuy opposite91.5%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.3%
Capital$24Hold~44dFees−0.8¢Net edge-0.3¢
Republican
NC-09 House Election WinnerBuy at74.0%PolymarketBuy opposite24.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.0%
Capital$174Hold~43dFees−2.0¢Net edge-0.0¢
Matt Damon
Oscar Winner: Best Actor — In 2027Buy at25.0%PolymarketBuy opposite73.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.3%
Capital$26Hold~175dFees−2.3¢Net edge-0.3¢
Melissa Amaya
Amaya vs MachadoBuy at35.0%KalshiBuy opposite64.0%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-1.8%
Capital$5Hold~6dFees−2.7¢Net edge-1.7¢
CJ Carr
Pro Football #1 Overall Pick in 2027 — 1st Pick 2027Buy at14.0%KalshiBuy opposite85.0%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.2%
Capital$41Hold~214dFees−1.2¢Net edge-0.2¢
3
How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting? — October 2026Buy at10.0%KalshiBuy opposite89.0%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$79Hold~38dFees−1.1¢Net edge-0.1¢
Disclosure Day
Oscars 2027: Best Original Score WinnerBuy at7.2%PolymarketBuy opposite92.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.0%
Capital$198Hold~175dFees−0.8¢Net edge-0.0¢
Republican party
VA-07 House winner? — In 2026Buy at7.3%PolymarketBuy opposite92.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$124Hold~45dFees−0.8¢Net edge-0.1¢
Jahmyr Gibbs
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top RB — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at34.0%KalshiBuy opposite65.0%Gemini
Profit−$0Return-2.2%
Capital$5Hold~112dFees−3.2¢Net edge-2.2¢
BYU
College Football Playoff Qualifiers — 2026-27Buy at29.0%GeminiBuy opposite69.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-1.0%
Capital$11Hold~100dFees−2.9¢Net edge-0.9¢
Andy Barr
Kentucky Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at95.2%KalshiBuy opposite4.7%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.4%
Capital$27Hold~43dFees−0.5¢Net edge-0.4¢
Democratic
NV-04 House Election WinnerBuy at93.0%PolymarketBuy opposite6.9%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.6%
Capital$18Hold~45dFees−0.7¢Net edge-0.6¢
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
MLS Cup Winner 2026Buy at21.4%PolymarketBuy opposite77.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.1%
Capital$75Hold~89dFees−1.7¢Net edge-0.1¢
Republican
Florida Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at89.0%KalshiBuy opposite10.0%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.0%
Capital$248Hold~409dFees−1.0¢Net edge-0.0¢
5
How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida? — On Nov 3, 2026Buy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite87.0%Polymarket
Profit−$0Return-0.2%
Capital$59Hold~43dFees−1.2¢Net edge-0.2¢
7
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?Buy at3.9%PolymarketBuy opposite96.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.3%
Capital$40Hold~43dFees−0.4¢Net edge-0.3¢
Democratic party
AZ-02 House winner? — In 2026Buy at29.0%PolymarketBuy opposite69.0%Kalshi
Profit−$0Return-0.3%
Capital$39Hold~45dFees−2.3¢Net edge-0.3¢
Showing 351–400 of 505