GAPS
505 gaps
340/505 gaps on this page are still profitable after both venues' trading fees. We show every real price gap, including the ones fees turn into a loss — sites that show more "arbitrage" are usually counting the fees you would pay as profit.
| Outcome | Event | Buy at | Buy opposite | Capital | Hold | Fees | Net edge | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — 202… | 5.9%Kalshi | 92.0%Polymarket | $10 | ~211d | −0.8¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Democratic | NY-01 House Election Winner | 23.0%Kalshi | 75.0%Polymarket | $1.3K | ~43d | −2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Walker III | Pro Football Rushing Yards Leader — 2026-202… | 14.0%Polymarket US | 78.0%Kalshi | $2 | ~112d | −2.0¢ | 6.0¢ | $0 | 6.5% |
| Democratic | TX-34 House winner? — In 2026 | 74.0%Polymarket US | 22.0%Kalshi | $8 | ~44d | −2.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $0 | 1.5% |
| Josh Allen | Pro Football Passing Yards Leader — 2026-202… | 12.6%Polymarket | 85.0%Kalshi | $12 | ~114d | −1.4¢ | 1.0¢ | $0 | 1.0% |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | College Football Playoff National Championsh… | 24.0%Polymarket US | 72.0%Kalshi | $8 | ~117d | −2.7¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Jesse Love | NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion | 8.0%Kalshi | 88.0%Polymarket US | $4 | ~48d | −1.2¢ | 2.8¢ | $0 | 2.9% |
| SMU | College Football ACC Championship Game Quali… | 26.0%Kalshi | 69.0%Polymarket US | $5 | ~76d | −2.8¢ | 2.2¢ | $0 | 2.3% |
| Geno Ploeger | America's Got Talent S21: Runner-Up | 11.0%Polymarket | 78.0%Polymarket US | $1 | ~3d | −1.7¢ | 9.3¢ | $0 | 10.5% |
| Democratic Party | FL-12 House Election Winner | 9.0%Polymarket | 90.0%Kalshi | $225 | ~44d | −1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0.0% |
| Republican Party | DE-AL House Election Winner | 3.3%Kalshi | 96.0%Polymarket | $28 | ~44d | −0.4¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | 0.3% |
| Derrick Henry | Offensive Player of the Year Winner? — 2026-… | 6.0%Polymarket | 93.0%Kalshi | $34 | ~161d | −0.7¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | 0.3% |
| LSU | College Football SEC Championship Game Quali… | 23.0%Polymarket US | 70.0%Kalshi | $2 | ~76d | −2.7¢ | 4.3¢ | $0 | 4.6% |
| Project Hail Mary | Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Winner | 7.0%Kalshi | 91.6%Polymarket | $14 | ~175d | −0.8¢ | 0.6¢ | $0 | 0.6% |
| 70 to 71°F | Highest temperature in Denver on September 2… | 3.0%Kalshi | 96.0%Polymarket | $13 | ~1d | −0.4¢ | 0.6¢ | $0 | 0.6% |
| New Mexico | College Football Mountain West Championship … | 43.0%Kalshi | 52.0%Polymarket US | $5 | ~75d | −3.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $0 | 1.6% |
| Jaafar Jackson | Oscar nominees: Best Actor — In 2027 | 3.0%Polymarket US | 88.0%Kalshi | $1 | ~175d | −0.9¢ | 8.1¢ | $0 | 8.9% |
| Kuomintang | 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | 83.0%Kalshi | 14.0%Polymarket | $5 | ~68d | −1.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $0 | 1.6% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Pro Football Rushing Yards Leader — 2026-202… | 13.0%Polymarket | 84.0%Kalshi | $5 | ~114d | −1.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $0 | 1.5% |
| Julianne Moore | Oscar winner: Best Actress — In 2027 | 65.0%Kalshi | 31.0%Polymarket | $5 | ~175d | −2.7¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Republican | Massachusetts Governor winner? — In 2026 | 3.5%Polymarket | 95.4%Kalshi | $11 | ~43d | −0.4¢ | 0.7¢ | $0 | 0.7% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028 | 6.6%Kalshi | 92.0%Polymarket | $11 | ~689d | −0.7¢ | 0.7¢ | $0 | 0.7% |
| 95,000 to 99,999.99 | Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 — On Jan 1,… | 6.4%Kalshi | 89.0%Polymarket US | $2 | ~102d | −1.1¢ | 3.5¢ | $0 | 3.7% |
| Wildwood | Oscars 2027: Best Animated Feature Film Winn… | 43.0%Kalshi | 54.0%Polymarket | $164 | ~175d | −3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0.0% |
| Josh Shapiro | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028 | 3.3%Kalshi | 95.8%Polymarket | $14 | ~689d | −0.4¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | 0.5% |
| Magdalena Andersson | Next Prime Minister of Sweden | 82.0%Polymarket US | 15.0%Polymarket | $5 | <1d | −1.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $0 | 1.5% |
| Mariana Rodríguez Cantú | Nuevo León Governor Election Winner | 22.0%Kalshi | 74.7%Polymarket | $5 | ~259d | −2.0¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Democratic Party | RI-01 House Election Winner | 93.0%Polymarket | 6.2%Kalshi | $50 | ~44d | −0.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | 0.1% |
| No | Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs be engaged in … | 89.7%Polymarket | 8.0%Kalshi | $5 | ~102d | −1.0¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Yes | Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs be engaged in … | 8.0%Kalshi | 89.7%Polymarket | $5 | ~102d | −1.0¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Once Upon a Time in Harlem | Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film W… | 12.0%Kalshi | 86.0%Polymarket | $10 | ~175d | −1.3¢ | 0.7¢ | $0 | 0.7% |
| No | Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlav… | 94.5%Kalshi | 5.1%Polymarket | $181 | ~102d | −0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0.0% |
| Yes | Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlav… | 5.1%Polymarket | 94.5%Kalshi | $181 | ~102d | −0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0.0% |
| Yes Letitia James | Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before J… | 5.7%Polymarket | 93.0%Kalshi | $10 | ~102d | −0.7¢ | 0.6¢ | $0 | 0.6% |
| Falcons | Falcons vs Saints | 57.0%Polymarket | 39.5%Polymarket US | $10 | ~15d | −2.9¢ | 0.6¢ | $0 | 0.6% |
| Saints | Falcons vs Saints | 39.5%Polymarket US | 57.0%Polymarket | $10 | ~15d | −2.9¢ | 0.6¢ | $0 | 0.6% |
| Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez | Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner | 20.0%Kalshi | 77.0%Polymarket | $5 | ~259d | −1.8¢ | 1.2¢ | $0 | 1.2% |
| Kraken | Flames vs Kraken | 59.0%Polymarket | 37.0%Polymarket US | $5 | ~4d | −2.8¢ | 1.2¢ | $0 | 1.2% |
| Flames | Flames vs Kraken | 37.0%Polymarket US | 59.0%Polymarket | $5 | ~4d | −2.8¢ | 1.2¢ | $0 | 1.2% |
| Marc Marquez | MotoGP World Champion — 2026 | 72.0%Polymarket | 25.0%Kalshi | $8 | ~70d | −2.3¢ | 0.7¢ | $0 | 0.7% |
| Yes November 30 | US-Iran nuclear deal? — In 2026 | 7.0%Kalshi | 92.0%Polymarket | $10 | ~102d | −0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | 0.5% |
| James Madison | College Football Sun Belt Championship Game … | 45.0%Polymarket US | 51.0%Kalshi | $10 | ~75d | −3.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | 0.6% |
| Penn St. | College Football Big Ten Championship Game Q… | 21.0%Polymarket US | 74.0%Kalshi | $2 | ~76d | −2.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $0 | 2.6% |
| Andy Beshear | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | 2.6%Polymarket | 96.5%Kalshi | $9 | ~778d | −0.3¢ | 0.6¢ | $0 | 0.6% |
| Democratic | TX-32 House Election Winner | 7.8%Polymarket | 90.9%Kalshi | $10 | ~44d | −0.9¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | 0.4% |
| Republican | NE-02 House Election Winner | 6.1%Polymarket | 93.0%Kalshi | $20 | ~44d | −0.7¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | 0.2% |
| Massachusetts | College Football MAC Championship Winner — 2… | 10.0%Polymarket | 88.0%Kalshi | $5 | ~105d | −1.2¢ | 0.8¢ | $0 | 0.8% |
| John S. Rodgers | Vermont Lieutenant Governor winner? — In 202… | 17.0%Polymarket | 80.0%Kalshi | $3 | ~44d | −1.7¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Yes Lisa Cook | Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before J… | 3.9%Polymarket | 94.9%Kalshi | $5 | ~102d | −0.5¢ | 0.7¢ | $0 | 0.7% |
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | Michigan Senate Election: Oakland County Win… | 91.0%Polymarket | 3.0%Polymarket US | $1 | ~44d | −0.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $0 | 5.8% |
Illinois
Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — 2026-27 SeasonBuy at5.9%KalshiBuy opposite92.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$10Hold~211dFees−0.8¢Net edge1.3¢
Democratic
NY-01 House Election WinnerBuy at23.0%KalshiBuy opposite75.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.0%
Capital$1.3KHold~43dFees−2.0¢Net edge0.0¢
Kenneth Walker III
Pro Football Rushing Yards Leader — 2026-2027 Regular SeasonBuy at14.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite78.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return6.5%
Capital$2Hold~112dFees−2.0¢Net edge6.0¢
Democratic
TX-34 House winner? — In 2026Buy at74.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite22.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return1.5%
Capital$8Hold~44dFees−2.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Josh Allen
Pro Football Passing Yards Leader — 2026-2027 Regular SeasonBuy at12.6%PolymarketBuy opposite85.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return1.0%
Capital$12Hold~114dFees−1.4¢Net edge1.0¢
Ohio State Buckeyes
College Football Playoff National Championship Qualifiers — 2026-27Buy at24.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite72.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$8Hold~117dFees−2.7¢Net edge1.3¢
Jesse Love
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series ChampionBuy at8.0%KalshiBuy opposite88.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return2.9%
Capital$4Hold~48dFees−1.2¢Net edge2.8¢
SMU
College Football ACC Championship Game Qualifiers — 2026 seasonBuy at26.0%KalshiBuy opposite69.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return2.3%
Capital$5Hold~76dFees−2.8¢Net edge2.2¢
Geno Ploeger
America's Got Talent S21: Runner-UpBuy at11.0%PolymarketBuy opposite78.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return10.5%
Capital$1Hold~3dFees−1.7¢Net edge9.3¢
Democratic Party
FL-12 House Election WinnerBuy at9.0%PolymarketBuy opposite90.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.0%
Capital$225Hold~44dFees−1.0¢Net edge0.0¢
Republican Party
DE-AL House Election WinnerBuy at3.3%KalshiBuy opposite96.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.3%
Capital$28Hold~44dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.3¢
Derrick Henry
Offensive Player of the Year Winner? — 2026-27 seasonBuy at6.0%PolymarketBuy opposite93.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.3%
Capital$34Hold~161dFees−0.7¢Net edge0.3¢
LSU
College Football SEC Championship Game Qualifiers — 2026Buy at23.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite70.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return4.6%
Capital$2Hold~76dFees−2.7¢Net edge4.3¢
Project Hail Mary
Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography WinnerBuy at7.0%KalshiBuy opposite91.6%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.6%
Capital$14Hold~175dFees−0.8¢Net edge0.6¢
70 to 71°F
Highest temperature in Denver on September 21?Buy at3.0%KalshiBuy opposite96.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.6%
Capital$13Hold~1dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.6¢
New Mexico
College Football Mountain West Championship Game Qualifiers — 2026 seasonBuy at43.0%KalshiBuy opposite52.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return1.6%
Capital$5Hold~75dFees−3.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Jaafar Jackson
Oscar nominees: Best Actor — In 2027Buy at3.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite88.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return8.9%
Capital$1Hold~175dFees−0.9¢Net edge8.1¢
Kuomintang
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party WinnerBuy at83.0%KalshiBuy opposite14.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.6%
Capital$5Hold~68dFees−1.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Jahmyr Gibbs
Pro Football Rushing Yards Leader — 2026-2027 Regular SeasonBuy at13.0%PolymarketBuy opposite84.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return1.5%
Capital$5Hold~114dFees−1.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Julianne Moore
Oscar winner: Best Actress — In 2027Buy at65.0%KalshiBuy opposite31.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$5Hold~175dFees−2.7¢Net edge1.3¢
Republican
Massachusetts Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at3.5%PolymarketBuy opposite95.4%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.7%
Capital$11Hold~43dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.7¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028Buy at6.6%KalshiBuy opposite92.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.7%
Capital$11Hold~689dFees−0.7¢Net edge0.7¢
95,000 to 99,999.99
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 — On Jan 1, 2027 at 12am ESTBuy at6.4%KalshiBuy opposite89.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return3.7%
Capital$2Hold~102dFees−1.1¢Net edge3.5¢
Wildwood
Oscars 2027: Best Animated Feature Film WinnerBuy at43.0%KalshiBuy opposite54.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.0%
Capital$164Hold~175dFees−3.0¢Net edge0.0¢
Josh Shapiro
2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028Buy at3.3%KalshiBuy opposite95.8%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.5%
Capital$14Hold~689dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.5¢
Magdalena Andersson
Next Prime Minister of SwedenBuy at82.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite15.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.5%
Capital$5Hold<1dFees−1.5¢Net edge1.5¢
Mariana Rodríguez Cantú
Nuevo León Governor Election WinnerBuy at22.0%KalshiBuy opposite74.7%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$5Hold~259dFees−2.0¢Net edge1.3¢
Democratic Party
RI-01 House Election WinnerBuy at93.0%PolymarketBuy opposite6.2%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.1%
Capital$50Hold~44dFees−0.7¢Net edge0.1¢
No
Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs be engaged in 2026?Buy at89.7%PolymarketBuy opposite8.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$5Hold~102dFees−1.0¢Net edge1.3¢
Yes
Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs be engaged in 2026?Buy at8.0%KalshiBuy opposite89.7%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$5Hold~102dFees−1.0¢Net edge1.3¢
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film WinnerBuy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite86.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.7%
Capital$10Hold~175dFees−1.3¢Net edge0.7¢
No
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?Buy at94.5%KalshiBuy opposite5.1%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.0%
Capital$181Hold~102dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.0¢
Yes
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?Buy at5.1%PolymarketBuy opposite94.5%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.0%
Capital$181Hold~102dFees−0.4¢Net edge0.0¢
YesLetitia James
Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before Jan 2027Buy at5.7%PolymarketBuy opposite93.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.6%
Capital$10Hold~102dFees−0.7¢Net edge0.6¢
Falcons
Falcons vs SaintsBuy at57.0%PolymarketBuy opposite39.5%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return0.6%
Capital$10Hold~15dFees−2.9¢Net edge0.6¢
Saints
Falcons vs SaintsBuy at39.5%Polymarket USBuy opposite57.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.6%
Capital$10Hold~15dFees−2.9¢Net edge0.6¢
Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez
Aguascalientes Governor Election WinnerBuy at20.0%KalshiBuy opposite77.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.2%
Capital$5Hold~259dFees−1.8¢Net edge1.2¢
Kraken
Flames vs KrakenBuy at59.0%PolymarketBuy opposite37.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return1.2%
Capital$5Hold~4dFees−2.8¢Net edge1.2¢
Flames
Flames vs KrakenBuy at37.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite59.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.2%
Capital$5Hold~4dFees−2.8¢Net edge1.2¢
Marc Marquez
MotoGP World Champion — 2026Buy at72.0%PolymarketBuy opposite25.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.7%
Capital$8Hold~70dFees−2.3¢Net edge0.7¢
YesNovember 30
US-Iran nuclear deal? — In 2026Buy at7.0%KalshiBuy opposite92.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return0.5%
Capital$10Hold~102dFees−0.5¢Net edge0.5¢
James Madison
College Football Sun Belt Championship Game Qualifiers — 2026 seasonBuy at45.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite51.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.6%
Capital$10Hold~75dFees−3.5¢Net edge0.5¢
Penn St.
College Football Big Ten Championship Game Qualifiers — 2026 seasonBuy at21.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite74.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return2.6%
Capital$2Hold~76dFees−2.5¢Net edge2.5¢
Andy Beshear
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Buy at2.6%PolymarketBuy opposite96.5%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.6%
Capital$9Hold~778dFees−0.3¢Net edge0.6¢
Democratic
TX-32 House Election WinnerBuy at7.8%PolymarketBuy opposite90.9%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.4%
Capital$10Hold~44dFees−0.9¢Net edge0.4¢
Republican
NE-02 House Election WinnerBuy at6.1%PolymarketBuy opposite93.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.2%
Capital$20Hold~44dFees−0.7¢Net edge0.2¢
Massachusetts
College Football MAC Championship Winner — 2026Buy at10.0%PolymarketBuy opposite88.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.8%
Capital$5Hold~105dFees−1.2¢Net edge0.8¢
John S. Rodgers
Vermont Lieutenant Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at17.0%PolymarketBuy opposite80.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$3Hold~44dFees−1.7¢Net edge1.3¢
YesLisa Cook
Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before Jan 2027Buy at3.9%PolymarketBuy opposite94.9%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.7%
Capital$5Hold~102dFees−0.5¢Net edge0.7¢
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Michigan Senate Election: Oakland County WinnerBuy at91.0%PolymarketBuy opposite3.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return5.8%
Capital$1Hold~44dFees−0.5¢Net edge5.5¢
Showing 251–300 of 505