GAPS
505 gaps
340/505 gaps on this page are still profitable after both venues' trading fees. We show every real price gap, including the ones fees turn into a loss — sites that show more "arbitrage" are usually counting the fees you would pay as profit.
| Outcome | Event | Buy at | Buy opposite | Capital | Hold | Fees | Net edge | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks & Dunn | CMA Awards: Vocal Duo of the Year — Vocal Du… | 64.0%Kalshi | 35.0%Polymarket | $40 | ~59d | −2.8¢ | -1.8¢ | −$1 | -1.8% |
| Republican party | MI-03 House winner? — In 2026 | 6.9%Polymarket | 92.5%Kalshi | $497 | ~45d | −0.7¢ | -0.1¢ | −$1 | -0.1% |
| Georgia Bulldogs | College Football SEC Championship Winner — 2… | 29.0%Polymarket | 70.0%Kalshi | $49 | ~104d | −2.5¢ | -1.5¢ | −$1 | -1.5% |
| Kimi Antonelli | F1 Drivers' Champion | 92.0%Kalshi | 7.8%Polymarket | $147 | ~76d | −0.7¢ | -0.5¢ | −$1 | -0.5% |
| The Black Ball | Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner | 27.0%Kalshi | 72.0%Polymarket | $56 | ~175d | −2.4¢ | -1.4¢ | −$1 | -1.4% |
| Democratic party | FL-07 House winner? | 32.0%Kalshi | 67.0%Polymarket | $64 | ~44d | −2.4¢ | -1.4¢ | −$1 | -1.4% |
| Republican | TX-23 House Election Winner | 65.0%Polymarket | 34.0%Kalshi | $63 | ~43d | −2.5¢ | -1.5¢ | −$1 | -1.5% |
| Republican | AR-02 House Election Winner | 84.0%Polymarket | 15.0%Kalshi | $220 | ~44d | −1.4¢ | -0.4¢ | −$1 | -0.4% |
| Bayern | Bayern vs Manchester City | 48.0%Kalshi | 51.0%Polymarket | $50 | ~2d | −3.0¢ | -2.0¢ | −$1 | -2.0% |
| Laura Samson | Samson vs Basiletti | 66.0%Kalshi | 33.0%Polymarket | $59 | ~7d | −2.7¢ | -1.7¢ | −$1 | -1.7% |
| Democratic Party | TN-05 House Election Winner | 11.0%Kalshi | 88.9%Polymarket | $104 | ~44d | −1.1¢ | -1.0¢ | −$1 | -1.0% |
| Democratic | GA-12 House Election Winner | 9.8%Kalshi | 90.0%Polymarket | $147 | ~43d | −1.0¢ | -0.8¢ | −$1 | -0.8% |
| Republican | Minnesota Senate winner? — In 2026 | 9.0%Polymarket | 90.4%Kalshi | $348 | ~43d | −0.9¢ | -0.3¢ | −$1 | -0.3% |
| Republican | Iowa Governor winner? — In 2026 | 19.0%Polymarket | 80.0%Kalshi | $159 | ~43d | −1.7¢ | -0.7¢ | −$1 | -0.7% |
| Houston | College Football Playoff Qualifiers — 2026-2… | 13.0%Kalshi | 86.0%Gemini | $187 | ~100d | −1.6¢ | -0.6¢ | −$1 | -0.6% |
| Gadi Eizenkot | Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israe… | 53.1%Polymarket | 46.0%Kalshi | $152 | ~101d | −1.7¢ | -0.8¢ | −$1 | -0.8% |
| Republican | NC-07 House Election Winner | 84.0%Polymarket | 15.0%Kalshi | $297 | ~43d | −1.4¢ | -0.4¢ | −$1 | -0.4% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top WR — 20… | 23.0%Kalshi | 75.0%Gemini | $245 | ~112d | −2.6¢ | -0.6¢ | −$1 | -0.6% |
| Julia Letlow | Louisiana Senate winner? — In 2026 | 93.0%Polymarket | 6.8%Kalshi | $304 | ~43d | −0.7¢ | -0.5¢ | −$2 | -0.5% |
| Democratic | NY-03 House Election Winner | 90.7%Kalshi | 9.0%Polymarket | $299 | ~45d | −0.9¢ | -0.6¢ | −$2 | -0.6% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 12.0%Gemini | 87.0%Polymarket | $990 | ~778d | −1.2¢ | -0.2¢ | −$2 | -0.2% |
| Democratic | KY-06 House Election Winner | 24.0%Kalshi | 75.0%Polymarket | $190 | ~44d | −2.0¢ | -1.0¢ | −$2 | -1.0% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israe… | 4.0%Kalshi | 95.9%Polymarket | $1.2K | ~101d | −0.3¢ | -0.2¢ | −$2 | -0.2% |
| Republican | Colorado Senate Election Winner | 2.8%Kalshi | 97.0%Polymarket | $1.9K | ~43d | −0.3¢ | -0.1¢ | −$2 | -0.1% |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 | 12.0%Kalshi | 87.0%Polymarket | $765 | ~19d | −1.3¢ | -0.3¢ | −$2 | -0.3% |
| Michigan | College Football Playoff Qualifiers — 2026-2… | 20.0%Kalshi | 79.0%Gemini | $182 | ~100d | −2.3¢ | -1.3¢ | −$2 | -1.3% |
| Republican | TX-15 House winner? — In 2026 | 31.0%Polymarket | 68.0%Kalshi | $184 | ~44d | −2.4¢ | -1.4¢ | −$3 | -1.4% |
| Bo French | Texas Railroad Commissioner winner — In 2026 | 43.0%Kalshi | 56.0%Polymarket | $170 | ~44d | −2.7¢ | -1.7¢ | −$3 | -1.7% |
| Democratic Party | AL-02 House Election Winner | 27.0%Polymarket | 72.0%Kalshi | $245 | ~43d | −2.2¢ | -1.2¢ | −$3 | -1.2% |
| England | England vs Sri Lanka | 88.0%Polymarket | 11.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | ~4d | −1.2¢ | -0.2¢ | −$3 | -0.2% |
| Democrats 8-10% | 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margi… | 25.0%Kalshi | 74.0%Polymarket | $306 | ~43d | −2.1¢ | -1.1¢ | −$3 | -1.1% |
| Republican | NC-13 House Election Winner | 84.0%Polymarket | 15.0%Kalshi | $786 | ~44d | −1.4¢ | -0.4¢ | −$3 | -0.4% |
| Democratic | NY-17 House winner? — In 2026 | 62.0%Kalshi | 36.0%Polymarket | $645 | ~44d | −2.6¢ | -0.6¢ | −$4 | -0.6% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2n… | 66.0%Kalshi | 32.0%Polymarket | $838 | ~13d | −2.4¢ | -0.4¢ | −$4 | -0.5% |
| Democratic | NY-21 House Election Winner | 20.0%Kalshi | 79.0%Polymarket | $489 | ~43d | −1.8¢ | -0.8¢ | −$4 | -0.8% |
| Democratic | PA-10 House winner? — In 2026 | 79.0%Polymarket | 20.0%Kalshi | $495 | ~45d | −1.8¢ | -0.8¢ | −$4 | -0.8% |
| Democratic | IA-03 House winner? — In 2026 | 75.0%Kalshi | 24.0%Polymarket | $492 | ~45d | −2.0¢ | -1.0¢ | −$5 | -1.1% |
| Club Tijuana | Tijuana de Caliente vs Atlas | 47.0%Kalshi | 52.0%Polymarket | $327 | ~5d | −3.0¢ | -2.0¢ | −$7 | -2.0% |
| Republican | NC-01 House winner? — In 2026 | 38.0%Polymarket | 61.0%Kalshi | $409 | ~45d | −2.6¢ | -1.6¢ | −$7 | -1.6% |
| Republican | NY-17 House winner? — In 2026 | 37.0%Polymarket | 61.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | ~44d | −2.6¢ | -0.6¢ | −$7 | -0.6% |
| Republican | PA-01 House winner? — In 2026 | 59.0%Polymarket | 39.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | ~44d | −2.6¢ | -0.6¢ | −$7 | -0.6% |
| Republican party | MI-10 House winner? — In 2026 | 33.0%Polymarket | 66.0%Kalshi | $485 | ~44d | −2.5¢ | -1.5¢ | −$7 | -1.5% |
| Democratic Party | MI-07 House Election Winner | 54.0%Kalshi | 44.0%Polymarket | $1.1K | ~45d | −2.7¢ | -0.7¢ | −$8 | -0.7% |
| Republican | TX-35 House winner? — In 2026 | 35.0%Polymarket | 64.0%Kalshi | $545 | ~44d | −2.5¢ | -1.5¢ | −$8 | -1.5% |
| Republican | Ohio Governor winner? — In 2026 | 42.0%Polymarket | 57.0%Kalshi | $511 | ~43d | −2.7¢ | -1.7¢ | −$9 | -1.7% |
| JD Vance | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | 20.8%Polymarket | 78.0%Gemini | $1.6K | ~778d | −1.9¢ | -0.7¢ | −$11 | -0.7% |
| Democratic party | WI-03 House winner? — In 2026 | 71.0%Polymarket | 28.0%Kalshi | $900 | ~45d | −2.2¢ | -1.2¢ | −$11 | -1.2% |
| Republican | NY-01 House Election Winner | 76.0%Polymarket | 23.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | ~43d | −2.0¢ | -1.0¢ | −$13 | -1.0% |
| Republican party | CO-04 House winner? | 68.0%Kalshi | 31.0%Polymarket | $909 | ~44d | −2.4¢ | -1.4¢ | −$13 | -1.4% |
| Democratic | Nevada Governor winner? — In 2026 | 44.0%Kalshi | 55.0%Polymarket | $841 | ~43d | −2.7¢ | -1.7¢ | −$15 | -1.7% |
Brooks & Dunn
CMA Awards: Vocal Duo of the Year — Vocal Duo of the Year | 2026Buy at64.0%KalshiBuy opposite35.0%Polymarket
Profit−$1Return-1.8%
Capital$40Hold~59dFees−2.8¢Net edge-1.8¢
Republican party
MI-03 House winner? — In 2026Buy at6.9%PolymarketBuy opposite92.5%Kalshi
Profit−$1Return-0.1%
Capital$497Hold~45dFees−0.7¢Net edge-0.1¢
Georgia Bulldogs
College Football SEC Championship Winner — 2026Buy at29.0%PolymarketBuy opposite70.0%Kalshi
Profit−$1Return-1.5%
Capital$49Hold~104dFees−2.5¢Net edge-1.5¢
Kimi Antonelli
F1 Drivers' ChampionBuy at92.0%KalshiBuy opposite7.8%Polymarket
Profit−$1Return-0.5%
Capital$147Hold~76dFees−0.7¢Net edge-0.5¢
The Black Ball
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay WinnerBuy at27.0%KalshiBuy opposite72.0%Polymarket
Profit−$1Return-1.4%
Capital$56Hold~175dFees−2.4¢Net edge-1.4¢
Democratic party
FL-07 House winner?Buy at32.0%KalshiBuy opposite67.0%Polymarket
Profit−$1Return-1.4%
Capital$64Hold~44dFees−2.4¢Net edge-1.4¢
Republican
TX-23 House Election WinnerBuy at65.0%PolymarketBuy opposite34.0%Kalshi
Profit−$1Return-1.5%
Capital$63Hold~43dFees−2.5¢Net edge-1.5¢
Republican
AR-02 House Election WinnerBuy at84.0%PolymarketBuy opposite15.0%Kalshi
Profit−$1Return-0.4%
Capital$220Hold~44dFees−1.4¢Net edge-0.4¢
Bayern
Bayern vs Manchester CityBuy at48.0%KalshiBuy opposite51.0%Polymarket
Profit−$1Return-2.0%
Capital$50Hold~2dFees−3.0¢Net edge-2.0¢
Laura Samson
Samson vs BasilettiBuy at66.0%KalshiBuy opposite33.0%Polymarket
Profit−$1Return-1.7%
Capital$59Hold~7dFees−2.7¢Net edge-1.7¢
Democratic Party
TN-05 House Election WinnerBuy at11.0%KalshiBuy opposite88.9%Polymarket
Profit−$1Return-1.0%
Capital$104Hold~44dFees−1.1¢Net edge-1.0¢
Democratic
GA-12 House Election WinnerBuy at9.8%KalshiBuy opposite90.0%Polymarket
Profit−$1Return-0.8%
Capital$147Hold~43dFees−1.0¢Net edge-0.8¢
Republican
Minnesota Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at9.0%PolymarketBuy opposite90.4%Kalshi
Profit−$1Return-0.3%
Capital$348Hold~43dFees−0.9¢Net edge-0.3¢
Republican
Iowa Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at19.0%PolymarketBuy opposite80.0%Kalshi
Profit−$1Return-0.7%
Capital$159Hold~43dFees−1.7¢Net edge-0.7¢
Houston
College Football Playoff Qualifiers — 2026-27Buy at13.0%KalshiBuy opposite86.0%Gemini
Profit−$1Return-0.6%
Capital$187Hold~100dFees−1.6¢Net edge-0.6¢
Gadi Eizenkot
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Buy at53.1%PolymarketBuy opposite46.0%Kalshi
Profit−$1Return-0.8%
Capital$152Hold~101dFees−1.7¢Net edge-0.8¢
Republican
NC-07 House Election WinnerBuy at84.0%PolymarketBuy opposite15.0%Kalshi
Profit−$1Return-0.4%
Capital$297Hold~43dFees−1.4¢Net edge-0.4¢
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top WR — 2026-2027 regular seasonBuy at23.0%KalshiBuy opposite75.0%Gemini
Profit−$1Return-0.6%
Capital$245Hold~112dFees−2.6¢Net edge-0.6¢
Julia Letlow
Louisiana Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at93.0%PolymarketBuy opposite6.8%Kalshi
Profit−$2Return-0.5%
Capital$304Hold~43dFees−0.7¢Net edge-0.5¢
Democratic
NY-03 House Election WinnerBuy at90.7%KalshiBuy opposite9.0%Polymarket
Profit−$2Return-0.6%
Capital$299Hold~45dFees−0.9¢Net edge-0.6¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Presidential Election Winner 2028Buy at12.0%GeminiBuy opposite87.0%Polymarket
Profit−$2Return-0.2%
Capital$990Hold~778dFees−1.2¢Net edge-0.2¢
Democratic
KY-06 House Election WinnerBuy at24.0%KalshiBuy opposite75.0%Polymarket
Profit−$2Return-1.0%
Capital$190Hold~44dFees−2.0¢Net edge-1.0¢
Avigdor Lieberman
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Buy at4.0%KalshiBuy opposite95.9%Polymarket
Profit−$2Return-0.2%
Capital$1.2KHold~101dFees−0.3¢Net edge-0.2¢
Republican
Colorado Senate Election WinnerBuy at2.8%KalshiBuy opposite97.0%Polymarket
Profit−$2Return-0.1%
Capital$1.9KHold~43dFees−0.3¢Net edge-0.1¢
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Buy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite87.0%Polymarket
Profit−$2Return-0.3%
Capital$765Hold~19dFees−1.3¢Net edge-0.3¢
Michigan
College Football Playoff Qualifiers — 2026-27Buy at20.0%KalshiBuy opposite79.0%Gemini
Profit−$2Return-1.3%
Capital$182Hold~100dFees−2.3¢Net edge-1.3¢
Republican
TX-15 House winner? — In 2026Buy at31.0%PolymarketBuy opposite68.0%Kalshi
Profit−$3Return-1.4%
Capital$184Hold~44dFees−2.4¢Net edge-1.4¢
Bo French
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner — In 2026Buy at43.0%KalshiBuy opposite56.0%Polymarket
Profit−$3Return-1.7%
Capital$170Hold~44dFees−2.7¢Net edge-1.7¢
Democratic Party
AL-02 House Election WinnerBuy at27.0%PolymarketBuy opposite72.0%Kalshi
Profit−$3Return-1.2%
Capital$245Hold~43dFees−2.2¢Net edge-1.2¢
England
England vs Sri LankaBuy at88.0%PolymarketBuy opposite11.0%Kalshi
Profit−$3Return-0.2%
Capital$1.5KHold~4dFees−1.2¢Net edge-0.2¢
Democrats 8-10%
2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — At the release of the national House popular vote dataBuy at25.0%KalshiBuy opposite74.0%Polymarket
Profit−$3Return-1.1%
Capital$306Hold~43dFees−2.1¢Net edge-1.1¢
Republican
NC-13 House Election WinnerBuy at84.0%PolymarketBuy opposite15.0%Kalshi
Profit−$3Return-0.4%
Capital$786Hold~44dFees−1.4¢Net edge-0.4¢
Democratic
NY-17 House winner? — In 2026Buy at62.0%KalshiBuy opposite36.0%Polymarket
Profit−$4Return-0.6%
Capital$645Hold~44dFees−2.6¢Net edge-0.6¢
Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBuy at66.0%KalshiBuy opposite32.0%Polymarket
Profit−$4Return-0.5%
Capital$838Hold~13dFees−2.4¢Net edge-0.4¢
Democratic
NY-21 House Election WinnerBuy at20.0%KalshiBuy opposite79.0%Polymarket
Profit−$4Return-0.8%
Capital$489Hold~43dFees−1.8¢Net edge-0.8¢
Democratic
PA-10 House winner? — In 2026Buy at79.0%PolymarketBuy opposite20.0%Kalshi
Profit−$4Return-0.8%
Capital$495Hold~45dFees−1.8¢Net edge-0.8¢
Democratic
IA-03 House winner? — In 2026Buy at75.0%KalshiBuy opposite24.0%Polymarket
Profit−$5Return-1.1%
Capital$492Hold~45dFees−2.0¢Net edge-1.0¢
Club Tijuana
Tijuana de Caliente vs AtlasBuy at47.0%KalshiBuy opposite52.0%Polymarket
Profit−$7Return-2.0%
Capital$327Hold~5dFees−3.0¢Net edge-2.0¢
Republican
NC-01 House winner? — In 2026Buy at38.0%PolymarketBuy opposite61.0%Kalshi
Profit−$7Return-1.6%
Capital$409Hold~45dFees−2.6¢Net edge-1.6¢
Republican
NY-17 House winner? — In 2026Buy at37.0%PolymarketBuy opposite61.0%Kalshi
Profit−$7Return-0.6%
Capital$1.1KHold~44dFees−2.6¢Net edge-0.6¢
Republican
PA-01 House winner? — In 2026Buy at59.0%PolymarketBuy opposite39.0%Kalshi
Profit−$7Return-0.6%
Capital$1.0KHold~44dFees−2.6¢Net edge-0.6¢
Republican party
MI-10 House winner? — In 2026Buy at33.0%PolymarketBuy opposite66.0%Kalshi
Profit−$7Return-1.5%
Capital$485Hold~44dFees−2.5¢Net edge-1.5¢
Democratic Party
MI-07 House Election WinnerBuy at54.0%KalshiBuy opposite44.0%Polymarket
Profit−$8Return-0.7%
Capital$1.1KHold~45dFees−2.7¢Net edge-0.7¢
Republican
TX-35 House winner? — In 2026Buy at35.0%PolymarketBuy opposite64.0%Kalshi
Profit−$8Return-1.5%
Capital$545Hold~44dFees−2.5¢Net edge-1.5¢
Republican
Ohio Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at42.0%PolymarketBuy opposite57.0%Kalshi
Profit−$9Return-1.7%
Capital$511Hold~43dFees−2.7¢Net edge-1.7¢
JD Vance
Presidential Election Winner 2028Buy at20.8%PolymarketBuy opposite78.0%Gemini
Profit−$11Return-0.7%
Capital$1.6KHold~778dFees−1.9¢Net edge-0.7¢
Democratic party
WI-03 House winner? — In 2026Buy at71.0%PolymarketBuy opposite28.0%Kalshi
Profit−$11Return-1.2%
Capital$900Hold~45dFees−2.2¢Net edge-1.2¢
Republican
NY-01 House Election WinnerBuy at76.0%PolymarketBuy opposite23.0%Kalshi
Profit−$13Return-1.0%
Capital$1.3KHold~43dFees−2.0¢Net edge-1.0¢
Republican party
CO-04 House winner?Buy at68.0%KalshiBuy opposite31.0%Polymarket
Profit−$13Return-1.4%
Capital$909Hold~44dFees−2.4¢Net edge-1.4¢
Democratic
Nevada Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at44.0%KalshiBuy opposite55.0%Polymarket
Profit−$15Return-1.7%
Capital$841Hold~43dFees−2.7¢Net edge-1.7¢
Showing 451–500 of 505