GAPS
505 gaps
340/505 gaps on this page are still profitable after both venues' trading fees. We show every real price gap, including the ones fees turn into a loss — sites that show more "arbitrage" are usually counting the fees you would pay as profit.
| Outcome | Event | Buy at | Buy opposite | Capital | Hold | Fees | Net edge | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 3.0%Kalshi | 95.6%Polymarket | $62 | ~126d | −0.3¢ | 1.1¢ | $1 | 1.1% |
| New York Yankees | Tampa Bay vs New York Y | 52.0%Polymarket | 42.0%Kalshi | $21 | ~5d | −3.0¢ | 3.0¢ | $1 | 3.2% |
| Aaron Ford (D) | Nevada Governor Election: Washoe County Winn… | 59.0%Polymarket US | 31.0%Polymarket | $8 | ~44d | −2.5¢ | 7.5¢ | $1 | 8.3% |
| Washington Mystics | Chicago Sky vs Washington Mystics | 76.0%Polymarket | 19.0%Polymarket US | $20 | ~4d | −2.0¢ | 3.0¢ | $1 | 3.2% |
| Chicago Sky | Chicago Sky vs Washington Mystics | 19.0%Polymarket US | 76.0%Polymarket | $20 | ~4d | −2.0¢ | 3.0¢ | $1 | 3.2% |
| 21 | How many House seats will Democrats win in N… | 12.0%Kalshi | 74.0%Polymarket | $4 | ~43d | −1.5¢ | 12.5¢ | $1 | 14.5% |
| Jon Rosenthal | Texas Railroad Commissioner winner — In 2026 | 54.0%Polymarket | 43.0%Kalshi | $207 | ~44d | −2.7¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | 0.3% |
| Republican | NY-03 House Election Winner | 8.0%Polymarket | 90.9%Kalshi | $268 | ~45d | −0.9¢ | 0.2¢ | $1 | 0.2% |
| New York Giants | 2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27 | 3.0%Kalshi | 96.4%Polymarket | $208 | ~126d | −0.3¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | 0.3% |
| Tom Cotton | Arkansas Senate winner? — In 2026 | 94.2%Kalshi | 4.5%Polymarket | $79 | ~43d | −0.6¢ | 0.7¢ | $1 | 0.8% |
| Dune: Part Three | Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Winner | 16.0%Polymarket | 82.0%Kalshi | $196 | ~175d | −1.7¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | 0.3% |
| Republican Party | RI-02 House Election Winner | 4.3%Polymarket | 94.6%Kalshi | $99 | ~43d | −0.5¢ | 0.6¢ | $1 | 0.6% |
| Miami (FL) | College Football ACC Championship Winner — 2… | 64.0%Polymarket US | 33.0%Polymarket | $189 | ~76d | −2.7¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | 0.3% |
| Xavier Becerra | California Governor Election: Fresno County … | 28.0%Polymarket | 59.0%Polymarket US | $5 | ~44d | −2.5¢ | 10.5¢ | $1 | 12.1% |
| ByteDance | Which companies will have a top-ranked AI mo… | 6.0%Kalshi | 89.0%Polymarket US | $13 | ~102d | −1.1¢ | 3.9¢ | $1 | 4.1% |
| Democratic | NE-01 House Election Winner | 16.0%Kalshi | 82.0%Polymarket | $114 | ~43d | −1.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $1 | 0.5% |
| Toy Story 5 | Oscars 2027: Best Animated Feature Film Winn… | 25.0%Kalshi | 72.0%Polymarket | $78 | ~175d | −2.3¢ | 0.7¢ | $1 | 0.7% |
| Republican | TX-13 House winner? | 95.0%Polymarket | 4.0%Kalshi | $97 | ~44d | −0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $1 | 0.5% |
| Mike Rogers (R) | Michigan Senate Election: Genesee County Win… | 16.0%Polymarket | 78.0%Polymarket US | $11 | ~44d | −1.7¢ | 4.3¢ | $1 | 4.5% |
| Democratic | GA-08 House Election Winner | 4.7%Kalshi | 94.0%Polymarket | $66 | ~44d | −0.5¢ | 0.8¢ | $1 | 0.8% |
| Paul Giamatti | Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor — In 202… | 39.0%Kalshi | 48.0%Polymarket | $4 | ~175d | −2.9¢ | 10.1¢ | $1 | 11.6% |
| North Dakota State | College Football Mountain West Championship … | 36.0%Polymarket US | 60.0%Kalshi | $63 | ~75d | −3.3¢ | 0.7¢ | $0 | 0.7% |
| Republican | Mississippi Senate winner? — In 2026 | 92.1%Kalshi | 6.0%Polymarket | $39 | ~43d | −0.7¢ | 1.2¢ | $0 | 1.2% |
| Doosan Bears | Korea KBO Champion — 2026 | 9.0%Polymarket | 83.0%Kalshi | $6 | ~42d | −1.4¢ | 6.6¢ | $0 | 7.2% |
| Democratic | NC-09 House Election Winner | 24.0%Kalshi | 73.0%Polymarket | $47 | ~43d | −2.1¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | 1.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay vs New York Y | 43.0%Polymarket US | 52.0%Polymarket | $21 | ~2d | −3.0¢ | 2.0¢ | $0 | 2.2% |
| Republican | IL-01 House Election Winner | 4.0%Polymarket | 94.6%Kalshi | $49 | ~44d | −0.5¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | 0.9% |
| 7 | How many House seats will Democrats win in F… | 15.0%Polymarket | 83.0%Kalshi | $86 | ~43d | −1.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | 0.5% |
| Matthew Stafford | Pro Football Passing Touchdowns Leader — 202… | 8.0%Kalshi | 90.0%Polymarket | $41 | ~114d | −1.0¢ | 1.0¢ | $0 | 1.1% |
| Bad Bunny | Top Artist 2026 | 82.0%Polymarket US | 15.0%Polymarket | $31 | ~73d | −1.7¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Alexander Volkanovski | Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at th… | 46.0%Polymarket US | 48.0%Polymarket | $11 | ~102d | −2.5¢ | 3.5¢ | $0 | 3.7% |
| Yes Mahmoud Khalil | Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before J… | 12.0%Kalshi | 82.0%Polymarket | $8 | ~102d | −1.3¢ | 4.7¢ | $0 | 5.0% |
| No | Pro Football: Justin Herbert 2026-27 Regular… | 39.0%Polymarket | 56.0%Polymarket US | $19 | ~112d | −2.9¢ | 2.1¢ | $0 | 2.2% |
| Yes | Pro Football: Justin Herbert 2026-27 Regular… | 56.0%Polymarket US | 39.0%Polymarket | $19 | ~112d | −2.9¢ | 2.1¢ | $0 | 2.2% |
| 7+ | How many House seats will the Democrats win … | 15.0%Kalshi | 75.0%Polymarket | $5 | ~43d | −1.6¢ | 8.4¢ | $0 | 9.3% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2028 Republican VP nominee — In 2028 | 2.5%Kalshi | 94.0%Gemini | $13 | ~776d | −0.6¢ | 2.9¢ | $0 | 3.0% |
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira | Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — B… | 10.0%Kalshi | 87.0%Gemini | $24 | ~102d | −1.4¢ | 1.6¢ | $0 | 1.6% |
| Yes | Pro Football: Josh Allen 2026-27 Regular Sea… | 30.0%Polymarket US | 66.0%Polymarket | $26 | ~112d | −2.6¢ | 1.4¢ | $0 | 1.5% |
| No | Pro Football: Josh Allen 2026-27 Regular Sea… | 66.0%Polymarket | 30.0%Polymarket US | $26 | ~112d | −2.6¢ | 1.4¢ | $0 | 1.5% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028 | 5.9%Polymarket | 92.0%Gemini | $28 | ~689d | −0.7¢ | 1.4¢ | $0 | 1.4% |
| Callum Turner | Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bo… | 20.1%Polymarket | 65.0%Kalshi | $3 | ~101d | −2.4¢ | 12.5¢ | $0 | 14.7% |
| UNLV | College Football Mountain West Championship … | 10.0%Kalshi | 87.0%Polymarket | $19 | ~105d | −1.2¢ | 1.8¢ | $0 | 1.9% |
| Bruce Blakeman (R) | New York Governor Election: Nassau County Wi… | 56.0%Polymarket US | 39.0%Polymarket | $14 | ~44d | −2.7¢ | 2.3¢ | $0 | 2.5% |
| Democratic | Mississippi Senate winner? — In 2026 | 6.0%Polymarket | 92.4%Kalshi | $39 | ~43d | −0.7¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | 0.9% |
| Democratic | Alabama Governor winner? — In 2026 | 4.6%Polymarket | 93.6%Kalshi | $28 | ~43d | −0.6¢ | 1.2¢ | $0 | 1.2% |
| Mike Rogers (R) | Michigan Senate Election: Oakland County Win… | 5.0%Polymarket US | 91.0%Polymarket | $10 | ~44d | −0.7¢ | 3.3¢ | $0 | 3.5% |
| Anthropic | Which AI company will have the best coding m… | 65.0%Kalshi | 30.0%Polymarket US | $16 | ~102d | −3.1¢ | 1.9¢ | $0 | 2.1% |
| Hurricanes | Predators vs Hurricanes | 56.0%Polymarket | 40.0%Polymarket US | $29 | ~4d | −2.9¢ | 1.1¢ | $0 | 1.1% |
| Predators | Predators vs Hurricanes | 40.0%Polymarket US | 56.0%Polymarket | $29 | ~4d | −2.9¢ | 1.1¢ | $0 | 1.1% |
| Alina Habba | Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — … | 4.8%Kalshi | 91.0%Gemini | $10 | ~852d | −0.9¢ | 3.3¢ | $0 | 3.5% |
Minnesota
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at3.0%KalshiBuy opposite95.6%Polymarket
Profit$1Return1.1%
Capital$62Hold~126dFees−0.3¢Net edge1.1¢
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay vs New York YBuy at52.0%PolymarketBuy opposite42.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return3.2%
Capital$21Hold~5dFees−3.0¢Net edge3.0¢
Aaron Ford (D)
Nevada Governor Election: Washoe County WinnerBuy at59.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite31.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return8.3%
Capital$8Hold~44dFees−2.5¢Net edge7.5¢
Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky vs Washington MysticsBuy at76.0%PolymarketBuy opposite19.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return3.2%
Capital$20Hold~4dFees−2.0¢Net edge3.0¢
Chicago Sky
Chicago Sky vs Washington MysticsBuy at19.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite76.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return3.2%
Capital$20Hold~4dFees−2.0¢Net edge3.0¢
21
How many House seats will Democrats win in New York? — On Nov 3, 2026Buy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite74.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return14.5%
Capital$4Hold~43dFees−1.5¢Net edge12.5¢
Jon Rosenthal
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner — In 2026Buy at54.0%PolymarketBuy opposite43.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.3%
Capital$207Hold~44dFees−2.7¢Net edge0.3¢
Republican
NY-03 House Election WinnerBuy at8.0%PolymarketBuy opposite90.9%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.2%
Capital$268Hold~45dFees−0.9¢Net edge0.2¢
New York Giants
2027 Pro Football Champion — 2026-27Buy at3.0%KalshiBuy opposite96.4%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.3%
Capital$208Hold~126dFees−0.3¢Net edge0.3¢
Tom Cotton
Arkansas Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at94.2%KalshiBuy opposite4.5%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.8%
Capital$79Hold~43dFees−0.6¢Net edge0.7¢
Dune: Part Three
Oscars 2027: Best Original Score WinnerBuy at16.0%PolymarketBuy opposite82.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.3%
Capital$196Hold~175dFees−1.7¢Net edge0.3¢
Republican Party
RI-02 House Election WinnerBuy at4.3%PolymarketBuy opposite94.6%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.6%
Capital$99Hold~43dFees−0.5¢Net edge0.6¢
Miami (FL)
College Football ACC Championship Winner — 2026Buy at64.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite33.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.3%
Capital$189Hold~76dFees−2.7¢Net edge0.3¢
Xavier Becerra
California Governor Election: Fresno County WinnerBuy at28.0%PolymarketBuy opposite59.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return12.1%
Capital$5Hold~44dFees−2.5¢Net edge10.5¢
ByteDance
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? — In 2026Buy at6.0%KalshiBuy opposite89.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return4.1%
Capital$13Hold~102dFees−1.1¢Net edge3.9¢
Democratic
NE-01 House Election WinnerBuy at16.0%KalshiBuy opposite82.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.5%
Capital$114Hold~43dFees−1.5¢Net edge0.5¢
Toy Story 5
Oscars 2027: Best Animated Feature Film WinnerBuy at25.0%KalshiBuy opposite72.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.7%
Capital$78Hold~175dFees−2.3¢Net edge0.7¢
Republican
TX-13 House winner?Buy at95.0%PolymarketBuy opposite4.0%Kalshi
Profit$1Return0.5%
Capital$97Hold~44dFees−0.5¢Net edge0.5¢
Mike Rogers (R)
Michigan Senate Election: Genesee County WinnerBuy at16.0%PolymarketBuy opposite78.0%Polymarket US
Profit$1Return4.5%
Capital$11Hold~44dFees−1.7¢Net edge4.3¢
Democratic
GA-08 House Election WinnerBuy at4.7%KalshiBuy opposite94.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return0.8%
Capital$66Hold~44dFees−0.5¢Net edge0.8¢
Paul Giamatti
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor — In 2027Buy at39.0%KalshiBuy opposite48.0%Polymarket
Profit$1Return11.6%
Capital$4Hold~175dFees−2.9¢Net edge10.1¢
North Dakota State
College Football Mountain West Championship Winner — 2026Buy at36.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite60.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.7%
Capital$63Hold~75dFees−3.3¢Net edge0.7¢
Republican
Mississippi Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at92.1%KalshiBuy opposite6.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.2%
Capital$39Hold~43dFees−0.7¢Net edge1.2¢
Doosan Bears
Korea KBO Champion — 2026Buy at9.0%PolymarketBuy opposite83.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return7.2%
Capital$6Hold~42dFees−1.4¢Net edge6.6¢
Democratic
NC-09 House Election WinnerBuy at24.0%KalshiBuy opposite73.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.0%
Capital$47Hold~43dFees−2.1¢Net edge0.9¢
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay vs New York YBuy at43.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite52.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return2.2%
Capital$21Hold~2dFees−3.0¢Net edge2.0¢
Republican
IL-01 House Election WinnerBuy at4.0%PolymarketBuy opposite94.6%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.9%
Capital$49Hold~44dFees−0.5¢Net edge0.9¢
7
How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida? — On Nov 3, 2026Buy at15.0%PolymarketBuy opposite83.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.5%
Capital$86Hold~43dFees−1.5¢Net edge0.5¢
Matthew Stafford
Pro Football Passing Touchdowns Leader — 2026-2027 Regular SeasonBuy at8.0%KalshiBuy opposite90.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.1%
Capital$41Hold~114dFees−1.0¢Net edge1.0¢
Bad Bunny
Top Artist 2026Buy at82.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite15.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$31Hold~73dFees−1.7¢Net edge1.3¢
Alexander Volkanovski
Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026?Buy at46.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite48.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return3.7%
Capital$11Hold~102dFees−2.5¢Net edge3.5¢
YesMahmoud Khalil
Who will be arrested before 2027? — Before Jan 2027Buy at12.0%KalshiBuy opposite82.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return5.0%
Capital$8Hold~102dFees−1.3¢Net edge4.7¢
No
Pro Football: Justin Herbert 2026-27 Regular Season Passing TouchdownsBuy at39.0%PolymarketBuy opposite56.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return2.2%
Capital$19Hold~112dFees−2.9¢Net edge2.1¢
Yes
Pro Football: Justin Herbert 2026-27 Regular Season Passing TouchdownsBuy at56.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite39.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return2.2%
Capital$19Hold~112dFees−2.9¢Net edge2.1¢
7+
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?Buy at15.0%KalshiBuy opposite75.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return9.3%
Capital$5Hold~43dFees−1.6¢Net edge8.4¢
Glenn Youngkin
2028 Republican VP nominee — In 2028Buy at2.5%KalshiBuy opposite94.0%Gemini
Profit$0Return3.0%
Capital$13Hold~776dFees−0.6¢Net edge2.9¢
Rodrigo Paz Pereira
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027Buy at10.0%KalshiBuy opposite87.0%Gemini
Profit$0Return1.6%
Capital$24Hold~102dFees−1.4¢Net edge1.6¢
Yes
Pro Football: Josh Allen 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing TouchdownsBuy at30.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite66.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.5%
Capital$26Hold~112dFees−2.6¢Net edge1.4¢
No
Pro Football: Josh Allen 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing TouchdownsBuy at66.0%PolymarketBuy opposite30.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return1.5%
Capital$26Hold~112dFees−2.6¢Net edge1.4¢
Pete Buttigieg
2028 Democratic VP nominee — In 2028Buy at5.9%PolymarketBuy opposite92.0%Gemini
Profit$0Return1.4%
Capital$28Hold~689dFees−0.7¢Net edge1.4¢
Callum Turner
Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Before 2030Buy at20.1%PolymarketBuy opposite65.0%Kalshi
Profit$0Return14.7%
Capital$3Hold~101dFees−2.4¢Net edge12.5¢
UNLV
College Football Mountain West Championship Winner — 2026Buy at10.0%KalshiBuy opposite87.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.9%
Capital$19Hold~105dFees−1.2¢Net edge1.8¢
Bruce Blakeman (R)
New York Governor Election: Nassau County WinnerBuy at56.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite39.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return2.5%
Capital$14Hold~44dFees−2.7¢Net edge2.3¢
Democratic
Mississippi Senate winner? — In 2026Buy at6.0%PolymarketBuy opposite92.4%Kalshi
Profit$0Return0.9%
Capital$39Hold~43dFees−0.7¢Net edge0.9¢
Democratic
Alabama Governor winner? — In 2026Buy at4.6%PolymarketBuy opposite93.6%Kalshi
Profit$0Return1.2%
Capital$28Hold~43dFees−0.6¢Net edge1.2¢
Mike Rogers (R)
Michigan Senate Election: Oakland County WinnerBuy at5.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite91.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return3.5%
Capital$10Hold~44dFees−0.7¢Net edge3.3¢
Anthropic
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026Buy at65.0%KalshiBuy opposite30.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return2.1%
Capital$16Hold~102dFees−3.1¢Net edge1.9¢
Hurricanes
Predators vs HurricanesBuy at56.0%PolymarketBuy opposite40.0%Polymarket US
Profit$0Return1.1%
Capital$29Hold~4dFees−2.9¢Net edge1.1¢
Predators
Predators vs HurricanesBuy at40.0%Polymarket USBuy opposite56.0%Polymarket
Profit$0Return1.1%
Capital$29Hold~4dFees−2.9¢Net edge1.1¢
Alina Habba
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Before Jan 21, 2029Buy at4.8%KalshiBuy opposite91.0%Gemini
Profit$0Return3.5%
Capital$10Hold~852dFees−0.9¢Net edge3.3¢
Showing 151–200 of 505